Donald Trump is never going to be President of the United States.  For that matter, neither is Sen. Bernie Sanders.  Trump has gone from an intriquing source of being spot on in area’s in need of attention in America to a totally self indulgent ego driven train wreck.  In Tuesday’s addition of Trump blaberings, he is accusing the Republican Party of “rigging the election” against him and more silliness.  In doing so he has accomplished nothing to help his campaign and induced some of his less educated followers to begin serious life threatening taunts against officials in Colorado.  All this from his loss in that State where he failed to understand the rules of Colorado selecting delegates. He never complained about the Florida rules giving him all the delegates with him garnering only 40% of the vote. Ted Cruz took advantage in Colorado by knowing the rules.  The Republican Party had nothing to do with it.  States have the autonomy to choose delegates how they wish.  Donald’s ignorance was not bliss.  He acts like a child in a tantrum.

In the very unlikely happening of Trump getting the necessary 1,237 delegates to win the nomination, without the women’s vote, all minority votes and college educated votes he has no chance of beating Hillary Clinton.  Assuming she is not in court defending herself.  Don’t fall prey to Trump winning resounding victories in New York (his home State) and in the East, his hopes in the West in know way will be as accommodating. Ted Cruz’s people have worked California and the West. They are much better organized.

As for Ted Cruz, forget him getting the 1,237 delegates.  He is concentrating  on stopping Trump in a second vote in the GOP contested convention.  However, as delegates free up to vote after a first round of nobody winning the nomination, the Party delegates (mostly Party loyalists) will never vote for a man as detested as Cruz.  Party backing used him to stop Trump in Wisconsin.

The big money donors to the GOP want no part of either one of these arrogant pompous losers to Hillary.  They see the big picture.  Winning is everything.  The key will be keeping everything out in the open during the convention so the Trump contingent understands why Trump is not the nominee.  However, Trump, lacking a shred of dignity, will do everything he can to disrupt the convention.  Makes one remember the old line thrown at communist accuser extrordinair Sen. Joe McCarthy….”Have you no shame Senator.”

So what’s going to happen?   Who will be the Republican nominee?  As House Speaker Paul Ryan has said it has to be someone who was running for President.  On a third ballot, most all delegates will vote for whoever they want.  Take your pick from Kasich, Rubio to Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. It’s anybody’s guess. But, Party insiders have a pretty good idea they’ll never share at this point.

In the forwhatisworth department….President Obama speaking with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday said “There is top secret and then there’s top secret” inferring Hillary’s emails were not significant. “She was, and she has acknowledged this herself, simply careless in what she did.” This is absolute rubbish.   How would he know?  Top secret is top secret.  Also, it is widely known she instructed an aid to tear off the Top Secret heading before sending it to her.  Simply careless?  This is a defense?  The President had no business speaking about an FBI investigation in progress.  He has used that defense often when not wanting to comment on an issue.  And being careless is no defense in this matter.  Obama probably hurt Hillary more than helping her.  Remember Thursday CNN is handling a Hillary/Bernie debate if interested.  Her lead in N.Y cut from 30% to 13%. Whatever happens there is of no consequence.

Careless?   Once I went in front of a judge on a speeding ticket with the excuse “Your honor, I simply didn’t see any speed limit signs posted. There weren’t signs”  Ignorance was my excuse.  The judge banged his gavel. Increased my fine and I left as quickly as possible.  I simply was careless.

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After being thoroughly whipped in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday by Ted Cruz,  Donald Trump Is finished as the GOP Presidential nominee. Why?  Because he will not have the needed 1,237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination out right on the first ballot.  And, there is no way he would win on a second ballot or more ballots because the deeply partisan GOP delegates don’t want him. Same with Ted Cruz.  The Republican Party wants the best candidate that can win to almost paraphrase William Buckley’s old line. “Choose the most conservative candidate who can win.”  That’s neither one of them.

Trump will retain significant power at the July Republican convention.  When he loses the nomination what is he apt to do?  Stage chaos leading to a walk out of him and his supporters?  Or, for once in his campaign, stifle his ego and retain some dignity by accepting the defeat. Your guess is as good as mine.  One thing in favor of the latter is there is going to be time enough in advance that Trump will realize he will not get the nomination.  Possibly, I said possibly, he will do the right thing.  But, predictability is not Trump’s strong suit. So it’s not likely

Ted Cruz will carry on with his pompous blabber.  He’ll do any and everything to try to secure the 1,237 needed because he knows, as well, later ballots for him will be a very very long shot. The Party will be looking for an alternative.  And, the prediction of House Speaker Paul Ryan getting the nomination begins to seem more plausible.  However, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich still calls it a fantasy. It won’t be Ryan.

Meanwhile Hillary Clinton continues to lay eggs.  Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders beat her up again winning five of the last six primary’s.  However, only the FBI report leading to an indictment will stop her. Martha Stewart served time in prison for far less than what Mrs. Clinton has done. However, essentially, the fix is in for her.  Sanders simply demonstrates what a terrible candidate Hillary Clinton remains.

So what we have here is a two Party mess that gets messier.  Cruz fights Trump as Trump fights Cruz. And, the Hillary/Sanders battle is laughable. It is more likely Hillary will weather her storm, even with a horrible FBI report, and receive no indictment and get the Democrat nomination.  There is monumental conjecture about what will come out of the Republican convention.  Some believe, having won 80% of the delegate’s between them, the nominee has to be either Trump or Cruz.  I simply don’t agree.   Even at the risk of convention chaos, the Republican Party will turn to a different candidate.  Yes, the rule established for Mitt Romney in 2012 says a nominee must have won a minimum majority of delegates in eight States.  New rules at convention time can be changed as fast as they were established in 2012.

Republican Chairman Reince Pribus is firm is his belief that the nominee will come from the three candidates running.  Not Paul Ryan who has no organization and doesn’t want it. Pribus would know better than anyone as to what’s happening inside the party. All of which suggests Ohio Governor John Kasich will break the Cruz/Trump dead lock as thee compromise candidate.  With his record in Ohio giving him a 70% approval rating in his 2nd term,, excellent work in 18 years as a successful Congressman serving the on the Armed Services Committee and the only one to solidly trounce Hillary Clinton in every poll for months, John Kasich is easily the most qualified of the three some.

Getting stronger as a candidate…getting better known as time goes on (many still don’t know him)…John Kasich would get my vote in a New York minute.  He has the best chance of winning.  Convention chaos or not.

Donald Trump will demonstrate….sore loser or not sore loser.  His most critical political decision.  Care to guess?

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for the latest political updates

Politico.com is reporting the likelihood of Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will end up as the Republican Party nominee for President.

Yes, it does make sense.  Chances are almost nil Donald Trump will win the Wisconsin primary Tuesday.  Ted Cruz will win more delegates and that will virtually clinch Trump will not have the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot of an open Republican convention in July.  Neither will Cruz.  Without a win on the first ballots cast by delegates, Trump will never get out of the convention with the nomination.  No way. Fumbling bumbling Trump is simply at his best as a salesman.  Not prepared to be a President as he proved again last week.  Really…women should be punished for having an abortion?  Campaign manager arrested on charges (unproven nonsense) for accosting a reporter.  Drop NATO or totally revamp it?  Running a nasty picture of Cruz’s wife.  It’s all winging it amateur talk. Senator Ted Cruz is simply hated by his Senate colleagues and most of the Party delegates.   Party delegates are mostly Party loyalists who want nothing to do with Cruz where they see no win with him either.  A high percentage of all voters in a Presidential elections vote on personality and likability.  That is not Ted Cruz. He is getting endorsements in order to stop Trump. And Trump has lost the women’s vote.  Can’t win without it.

So with a dead lock looming at the GOP convention, other names will turn up such as Paul Ryan.  Here’s the meat of the Politico story.  “One of the nations best wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60% chance of a convention dead lock (I believe it is considerably higher) and a 90% chance that delegates will turn to House Speaker Paul Ryan.   As Chairman of the National Republican Convention, it will end with him as the nominee of the Party.”

Ohio Gov. John Kasich will attraction attention as well with his success record and the only candidate, at present, who trounces Hillary in all polls taken of the match ups with her.  Or, possibly Kasich as Ryan’s Vice President running mate to secure Ohio for the Republicans.  However, with the mood of the Country wanting an outsider to vote for, two White establishment guys might not be the best idea.  It seems to me a better choice would be an Hispanic such as Rubio.  Or even better, a female Hispanic.  Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico immediately comes to mind.  A Ryan/Martinez ticket would be very attractive to many who don’t follow politics closely.  An experienced highly intelligent youthful Ryan with an attractive personable Hispanic female in Martinez would present the Democrat’s with even more of a challenge than they are now facing.

The typical liberal media keeps reminding everyone what a mess, a rebellion, the Republicans have ignoring Senator Bernie Sanders blowing away Hillary Clinton time after time.  She fears Wisconsin Tuesday. She also fears any Sunday morning political programs.  Might get a tough question.   There is no question the Democrats would find a way to get rid of Sanders should he get close to a nomination.  But, he presents all kinds of problems for Hillary who is a terrible campaigner now showing mean temperament and facing FBI reports imminent.  The Republicans face a mess?   The Democrat’s mess may be messier.

During my life time I have often heard of the demise, or ending of the Republican Party.   It doesn’t happen.  Why?  Because the quality of the candidate takes over during a Presidential election and public votes for whoever appeals to them the most.  The key for their Party this time is to somehow smooth over disgruntled Trump supporters without total turmoil.   However, when the dust settles and a solid Presidential ticket is campaigning, who would a Trump supporter vote for?   Hillary?  Laughable. True, some may not vote at all.  Trump leading a third Party?   Highly unlikely because Trump knows he would not win.  Losing is an anathema to Trump’s monumental ego.

In a way, the mess of both Parties might be a good thing.  Political interest and voting has been on the wane in the USA.  There’s plenty of interest this time around.  Even the no nothings might vote in a higher percentage.  Might.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for the latest updates in political news and commentary.

With Donald Trump, in some polls, now trailing Ted Cruz by 10% in next weeks Wisconsin primary and Gov. John Kasich surging as well, it is becoming more likely nobody will have the needed 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.   Plus, Hillary Clinton, as weak a candidate as she is, and acknowledges to some degree, she is flailing about trying to beat a 73 year unaccomplished Senator who is an acknowledged socialist who honeymooned in Communist Russia.  Two front runners that the American public trusts neither.   It appears more and more likely neither will get their Party’s nomination.  Hillary’s scandal/ FBI probe closing in and Trump making mistake after mistake, who would want either as President of the United States?  A buffoon business man and a congenital liar facing charges…what we have here is either hilarious or tragic.   Take your pick.  And, no way Bernie Sanders will get the Democrat nomination regardless of how many more States he may win.

Very well informed insiders are strongly suggesting that nobody presently campaigning will get either Party’s nomination.  Which is truly better for the USA.   Although, no charisma Gov. John Kasich of Ohio, easily would be the best choice on the current scene.  He’s done it all in his State of Ohio and in Congress.  70% approval rating in his State garnering heavy Afro American and Hispanic voters support.

So what happens now?   We wait as it plays out.  It appears the GOP convention in July will be an open convention.  Meaning anybody could come out of no where and get the nomination.  House Speaker Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio and even Mitt Romney could enter the picture.  The Democrat’s have as big a mess.   A lousy candidate facing exposure to serious felony charges.  It still seems likely VP Joe Biden keeps warming up in the bullpen.  This is all unprecedented in modern Presidential politics.  Semi no nothings and no nothings would vote for Hillary simply because she is a woman.  And more of the same for the man of a thousand contradictions (Trump) supported largely by people who would vote for the fictionalized “Mad prophet of the airwaves Howard Beal.”   “Mad as hell and won’t take it anymore.” supporters.

Lost in all this is substance of what is the best choices for new American leadership forthcoming in seven months.  Our Country is broke, twenty trillion in debt, wages stagnant or down, business still hesitant because of Obama’ s anti business sentiment (“The man ‘businessmen’ have kept the people down he believes) our military is at its lowest ebb in morale and readiness, nobody earning interest at banks because of the Feds low interest policy’s because the of their fears of a still stagnant economy, ISIS running and growing threatening the world while our President watch’s baseball and tango’s in Communist Cuba, the middle east in flames of confusion and no leadership,  Iran and North Korea can’t wait to use nuclear weapons upon whoever…USA included.   And, heaven only knows what else I’m missing.  Absurd Presidential campaigns of stupid bickering issues over nonsense.  Ex defense secretaries such as Bob Gates, openly stating he kept military plans away from Obama for fear of his incompetence messing things up.

Obama’s original wish was to “remake America” as he has tried.  He has managed to divide us as never before following Saul Alinsky’s book 12 Rules for Radicals.  Essentially divide and conquer us.  Bernie Sanders adds fuel to the fire of Obama dividing us.  Tear down the haves for the have not’s.  Millions now believe our Country and system is in need of change to you know what.

Does anyone have even the slightest memory of the “Hope and Change” this amateur President promised?  We’ve had change with no hope.

Here’s a closing thought we may all consider.  Why not pick a name out of the phone book and run him or her for President.  Or if we an find Presidential candidate Pat Paulson, if he’s still around, let’s put him in the White House.   At least we’d have some laughs while trying to undue the mess our Country now faces.  Bet Paulson would get a ton of write in votes.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for commentary and the latest in political developments.

The sight of President Obama sitting in communist Cuba, who have offered the USA nothing in return from his efforts, next to a communist leader,  watching a baseball game while Belgium explodes is simply detestable.  It all offers credence to many who believe Obama, raised in the Islam faith, has sympathy or compassionate understanding for Islamic terrorism.  He did not convert to Christianity until he joined the Black Theology Pastor Jerimiah Wright’s church well into his mid 20’s.  Of note, as well as many other hidden details of his past, Obama refuses to release details of any student loans he said he received while attending three college’s.  All this brings me back to questions I have long held.  Who shot JFK and who is Barack Obama?   In 2008 Obama hysteria, he was never vetted as a traditional candidate.  Always keep in mind, Obama still refuses to call it Islamic terrorism.  Why?

Nothing is going to happen to destruct ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) until the U.S. leads.  It’s a sorry state of affairs that no country in Europe will put together a coalition to fight back.  America should not have to lead, but the fact remains, unless we do nothing is going to happen.  The sole hope is a Republican President, to replace this national disgrace, will lay the ground work for terrorism defeat.  So long as the Islamic terrorists keeping finding success, they feel Allah is behind their efforts.  They cannot be contained.  It is spreading.  They have to be destroyed.  The Arab world and Europe is waiting for American leadership and a change in our Presidency.  Only a coalition led by America will force the issue.

In the primaries last night, nothing much has changed.  Trump won big in Arizona.  Cruz won big in Utah.  Again, very strong voter turn outs for the GOP candidates. Hillary won Arizona while Sen. Bernie Sanders won Utah and Idaho. Expert political pundits Mark Halperin and John McCain’s Presidential assistant Nicolle Wallace agree it is becoming increasingly likely Donald Trump is headed for the Republican nomination.  There are more and more calls for John Kasich to drop out of the race to let Cruz stop Trump in a one on one race.  Jeb Bush just endorsed Ted Cruz.  These same pundits feel Kasich is staying in the race to become Trump’s Vice President pick.

Not so fast I say.  First, the primary season is really going to slow down.  This gives more time for undecided Republican voters to hear why Trump is not the answer.  Keep in mind, for the most part, Trump is only getting 35% of the GOP vote.  On occasion he tops out as high as 40%.  It’s solid, but not enough.  Next, John Kasich’s message is finally being heard after months of being oblivious.  As primaries shift to Wisconsin and more moderate area States come in to play, Kasich’s chances improve.  And no, I don’t believe Kasich is running for the VP slot.  As he sees it, Trump will fall short of the needed 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination.  Then the Party and anti Trump forces take over at the convention after the first delegate vote count.  Think of this scenario.  Trump forces and Cruz forces battle to a stalemate.  After several State by State delegate votes, it may seem a dead lock.  What next?   That’s where other compromise candidates appear on the scene.  That’s where Gov. John Kasich, a sure bet to win the State of Ohio for the Republican’s, could step into the picture. Neither Trump nor Cruz have political managerial experience.  Kasich is overwhelmingly more qualified.  Plus, all polls show Hillary Clinton beating Trump handily in a National Presidential race.  Both their negatives are high.  But Trump’s are higher and he has little to no support from critical groups that support Hillary.  Both are extremely well known.  So a national campaign is unlikely to change minds.  And, Cruz is unelectable due to his extreme views and his pompous nature.  Kasich could be a natural pick by more establishment delegates.  He has always beat Mrs. Clinton by the widest margin in polls.  The GOP Party feels Trump simply can’t win.  Plus his coattails will lose the Senate.  Like it or not.   Believe it or not.  Trump, as all polls indicate, will not beat Hillary Clinton.  Forget the huge crowds Trumps draws.   Those are fervent diehards.  Not indicative on a national level.

So we wait as this endless political year drags on.  Nothing is settled.  Nothing except ISIS will continue to kill as Obama golfs, blows more tax payer dollars on trips with his family…including his mother in law.  She must be one helava negotiator.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for follow up details on this most difficult and historical time we are living in at present.

Says New York Times columnist Michael Barbaro in part ” But Donald Trump’s and Hillary Clinton’s resounding triumph’s Tuesday mask a profound historical and unusual reality.  Most Americans still don’t like him or her.”  His statement affords both Parties a glimmer of hope.  Hillary Clinton still awaits a possible indictment.  Democrat’s preparing in case. And the Republican National Committee, along with big donors, are preparing for a contested convention.  Nothing is “carved in stone.”

Sparing you Tuesday details.  Trump won big and Hillary won big Tuesday night.  However, Gov. of Ohio, John Kasich won convincingly in his home State.  His victory makes it better than a 50-50 chance the Republican Convention will be a contested convention.  Likely more contested than  Reagan/Ford in the 70’s.  Trump won next to nothing of minorities and Hillary’s unfavorable percentages are about the same as Trump’s.  Most Republican leaders are convinced, without women, without minorities, without enough less educated white voters, without enough cross over Democrat voters, Trump would lose to Clinton or her replacement should it come to it.

Donald Trump now has 619 delegates of the needed 1,237.  He needs 618 of the remaining 1,149 delegates yet to be decided.  Roughly 54%.  Here are some reasons he may not get there.  1. There is another Republican debate Monday night on the Fox News Channel.  ‘The Donald” say he plans not to attend.  Dumb idea. 2. John Kasich, as he says, has been running in relative obscurity.  After Monday, no more.  Just he and Cruz on the stage. The voters, Democrat’s and Republican’s in Ohio, really like their Governor. He won convincingly Tuesday over Trump.  He won his re election by 70%. A man now no longer in obscurity.  Especially after Monday.   3. There are only five winner take all States remaining.  And those five have much lower delegate availability. 4. Four primaries to be held next Tuesday.  Only Arizona looks good for Trump.  Idaho and Utah will lean towards Cruz. 5. Marco Rubio dropped out of the race after losing Florida.  Most likely his voters will go to Kasich.  6. 30% of Ohio voters said there is no way they would vote for Trump.  Ohio always a key State for Republican’s. They have never won a Presidential race without carrying Ohio.  Kasich is Ohio.

In a contested convention, the rules are normally tossed out.  After the first ballot in a floor vote, even a non running candidate can be voted upon.  Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, is now being talked about as a potential nominee.    Says Ryan…he has “ruled out that possibility.”  Not ruled out accepting the nomination.  The most comforting item that would prevent a near hysterical walk out should Trump be denied having the most votes is if he is not very close to the necessary 1,237 delegates.  Guessing under 1,100.  This could open it up for Kasich, Romney and even Rubio or Ryan for votes.  A compromise candidate.  Rubio, being Hispanic a very good Vice President nominee.   Even Trump is leaving open that possibility. Republican Party Chairman Reince Pribus says “A contested convention is not necessarily a bad thing.”

As for Hillary Clinton, she has all but wrapped up the Democrat nomination in delegates now and to come later.  Only the FBI report can stop her.  That report is needed soon before getting too close when an alternative candidate will need time to get placed on State ballots.

Obama Wednesday is announcing his nominee for the Supreme Court to replace Anton Scalia.  It is Judge Merrick Garland.  Naturally Obama tries to sell him as a conservative.  He is not.  More of a moderate. Of course Obama says the Senate must do their duty.  It’s more likely Garland will be “taking one for the team.”   Republican’s controlling the Senate have made it clear he will not even come up for a vote.  Just die in committee.  Obama would do the same, just as Senator Chuck Schumer had said some years earlier and Vice President Joe Biden. No way would they allow a vote for a new Supreme Court this late in a Presidential term.  Obama, more than most, is all politics all the time trying to make his appointee palatable. This nomination is political for the coming election.  If denied, some fear Obama will justify a recess appointment.  The Senate has to remain open. Question…what if the Republican’s lose the election and the Senate along with it?   Democrat’s, likely Hillary Clinton, would pick a much more liberal justice than judge Merrick.  Answer…after the November election bring up judge Garland and ram him through.

As things are after another “Super Tuesday”  or some calling it super duper Tuesday, I really hate to say it….it’s so trite it’s almost unbearable, but Yogi Berra’s all time quote “It ain’t over until it’s over.” is most appropriate at this time.  And, that quote is true.  A lot more to come.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for the latest updates on political happenings.

There’s massive dilemma facing the USA today.  Ohio is the key to everything because should Gov. Kasich win there he reduces the chances for Trump winning the nomination out right.  Better than a 50-50 chance. Cruz will win enough delegates and a smattering will still go to Rubio and Kasich. Assuming they don’t drop out. Florida and Ohio are the winner take all States. So without the needed 1,237 delegates this then becomes a contested convention in July.  Likely Trump won’t get the nomination.  Big probable looms.   Against Trump?  Sound great.  But, big problem looms.  For what it’s worth, Abraham Lincoln did not win his nomination until a third delegate vote.

Where will all the Trump supporters votes go?  Huge numbers will walk out of the Convention more than likely.  Many won’t vote.  Many will go back to the Democrat side.  And that friends hands the election away regardless of who the Democrat’s nominate.  Major problem if you don’t want another 4-8 years of essentially more Obama policy’s.

Other considerations.  Kasich beats Hillary in Ohio by 20%  Trump loses by 6% as it stands right now in NBC/Marist new poll.   Nationally,  Hillary continues to beat Trump by 6%.  Kasich continues to beat her by 10%.  He has huge appeal to moderates and Independents…and some Democrat’s who dislike Mrs. Clinton.  Should Trump win the nomination, it would be dumb not to have Kasich as his VP choice.

How to handle Trump supporters if Trump is denied the nomination in the July convention?  Without them, it could be catastrophic.   Trump would never take another position without the Presidential nomination.   Nobody has an answer at present.   So it’s a wait and see proposition.  Ask yourself which path is better to defeating the Democrat Nominee this November.  Trump gets the nomination or Trump does not receive the nomination?    Who knows.  Me thinks slightly better chance if Trump the nominee.  Cruz is unelectable.  But, the Party leaders very very likely would deny Trump the nomination and hand it to Kasich if they can.  A Kasich/Rubio ticket likely is their answer.  Kasich can beat Hillary and Rubio garners Hispanic’s that Trump has no chance in getting in any significant numbers.  That’s the likely scenario.  And, they just might be correct.  It’s preferable.  But, how likely?

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for Wednesday election summary and comments.

Trump must be stopped because he will lose the general election to Hillary, or whoever, and will take down the Republican Party and possibly the Country for a long long time. Currently Bernie Sanders beats Trump more easily than Hillary Clinton in new polls. The USA could very well become a socialist country.  Labor and business built America the highest stand of living the world has ever known…not government.  Governor John Kasich in Ohio is the key to halting Trump’s rise.  With added Ted Cruz winning of delegates, it appears more than likely Trump will not get the needed 1,237 delegates to automatically get the nomination.  An unlikely win by Marco Rubio in Florida would clinch the stoppage.

The chaos in Chicago Friday, although over dramatized with incidental TV clips while only five were arrested, nevertheless has become a thing of danger with possible dangerous consequences.  True, Trump has the right to free speech which was denied.  That should never happen.  There were elements of extremist financier George Soros financing the Move On .org contingent, black lives matter people were present, the faction of revolutionary William Ayes present, plus Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders people were present.  It was a well planned disruption that succeeded.  To his credit Trump called off his rally.

Said Ohio Governor and candidate, John Kasich “Donald Trump has created a very toxic environment.”  Trump doubling down, not calming down the matter, means more of the same.  He is putting his life and the lives of others in danger.  These protests are not going to stop and likely get worse as Trump was attacked in a Ohio rally Saturday stopped by the Secret Service protection.  Campaign fatigue and his combativeness are making him worse than ever.

Donald Trump’s behavior is losing support from Republican voters.  Before Friday, Trump was only garnering 35% of GOP voters meaning 65% want somebody else.  Trump will lose the general election without their support, having already lost support from other key factions, because there are simply not enough white cross over voters to carry him to November victory.

However, stopping Trump from winning the nomination in a contested convention, not brokered, is a “double edge sword.”  His supporters must be retained to vote Republican or all will be lost.  If the nomination is secured away from Trump, it must be done in a manner that is some how respectful to Trump.  Not an easy chore.  Very unlikely, but if Trump would support another Republican candidate it would critical.  Knowing Donald Trump, he probably would never do it.  The only possibility would be for Party leaders to offer Trump something in return.  Wildly speculative here…perhaps offer him to pick the Vice President and or Dr. Carson the Health and Human Services post.  Probably not enough.  And, no, Trump would never take a position in a new administration.  All or nothing Trump.  Likely Party leaders would come up with something.  They would have to.

This campaign is turning into something not seen since the Chicago protests of 1968 or the segregationist Alabama Gov.George Wallace in prior years.   Wallace was eventually shot and badly crippled for life. The 2016 campaign has turned ugly. Very ugly.  And it won’t stop because Trump won’t give in to calming matters down.

What can one do?   I urge all of my readers living in Tuesday primary States to go vote Republican for anyone but Trump.  Especially John Kasich, he’s the key, and Marco Rubio in Florida.  It has been said several times if Trump does not get the needed 1,237 delegates for the nomination before the convention, he will never walk out of the convention with that nomination.   Here’s “wishin’ and hopin” not just to stop Trump, but to present a Republican candidate who can win the Presidency.   And it won’t be Ted Cruz because his brand of extremism can’t win either.  Vote that way not just for the Republican Party, but for the sake of our Country as we once knew and it was intended to be by our Founders.

Stay with www.jacks jargon.com for results and commentary following the Tuesday primaries.

The trio of Rubio, Kasich and Cruz made Donald Trump look like he was last in line when the school books were passed out in Thursday nights debate.  Said CNN’s political expert Michael Smerconish, “It looked like Trump was trying to run out the clock.”   Meaning he was OK with just trying to maintain his status quo.  He went on to add “if Trump does not go into the convention with the necessary 1,237 needed for the nomination, he won’t come out with it.”

Rubio was outstanding with his depth of knowledge on foreign affairs, non terrorists Muslims, (needed for a coalition to defeat ISIS)  Muslims dying in our military defending the USA,  Cuba (naturally) and even willing to support no federal legislation with regard to climate change.  His reasoning being with no significant knowledge of how much mankind is causing global warming, it is a massive waste of billions of dollars when India, Russia and China have no commitment to curtail their efforts in that area.   Good point.  The U.S. contribution would be the proverbial “spit in the ocean.”  Huge dollars spent better on America’s more urgent needs the implication.

As always, Trump spoke in generalities.  Repeating the same lines that make him so popular with the largely less educated and less informed.  Again he brought up his standard trade lines of putting a 45% tariff on imports in particular from China.  Only this time back tracking somewhat….”I MAY put a 45% tariff on imports IF necessary.”   Cruz was ready and pounced pointing out how that tariff would increase prices by 45% on many goods American’s buy.  Kasich was vintage Kasich exploiting how well he has done in Ohio using techniques he learned in Congress.  Same stuff, but true.  He is best qualified to lead our Country if elected.

At this point, I see no reason to believe Donald Trump could beat any Democrat he would oppose in the general election.  Here is realistic polling data.  Trump’s support has slipped among women from 37% to 24%.  He would receive next to nothing in support from Hispanic’s.  Why would they support a man who wants to deport so many of them?  Afro American’s, as always, a lost cause.  Here’s how the GOP candidates would match up versus Hillary Clinton:    Rubio beats her 48% to 44%…Cruz beat her barely 47% to 46% and Trump?  Hillary 50% to Trump’s 43%.   Kasich has always done best against her normally by 10%.

The idea, as Trumps tells us, he is going to win so many cross over votes from traditional Democrat’s simply won’t cut it.  He keeps saying, “And I haven’t even started on her.”  It never comes up what the Democrat’s are going to do to him.  They have tons of material he has, essentially, given them.  An excellent Vice President choice seldom moves the needle in Presidential elections.  Perhaps one, hopefully, key State.

So what next?  The polls in Florida, surprisingly, show Rubio narrowing Trump’s lead.  Washington Post poll…36% to 27% for Trump. Suffolk poll…36% to 27% for Trump. It had been as much as Trump by 20%.  Rubio certainly gained from his debate performance Thursday night. Enough?   Probably not.  But, It is very likely Kasich will win his home State of Ohio.  With Cruz gaining support, it appears likely Trump will not have the needed delegates to automatically get the nomination.

Next Tuesday, March 15th, is THEE big day when it is winner take all primary day.  Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri all in play.  Trump normally does not do as well in a closed primary.  Closed means only Republican’s can vote for their Party’s candidate and the same for Democrat’s.  Notably, Florida is a closed primary.  Should Trump win Ohio and Florida he is a lock.  Highly unlikely.

As she admitted, Hillary is not a natural politician.  As bad as she is, her lead in Florida again is huge.  Just as it was in Michigan when Sen. Bernie Sanders pulled the mammoth upset.  Bernie  is causing Democrat’s to scramble just in case.  Hillary now knows she is not a lock with all that is facing her.

Dr. Ben Carson gives his endorsement to Donald Trump today.  Likely assured ahead of time a Cabinet post such as head of Health and Human Services. Not a bad choice.  Endorsement means little at this point in swaying any votes.

The huge interest and TV ratings focus on the Republicans.  Front and center is what will happen if Trump does not get the nomination one way or the other.  Keep in mind, the vast majority of delegates are ESTABLISHMENT delegates.  Meaning tougher sledding for Trump without the 1,237 he needs.  And while Cruz seems a natural second choice, the Republican Party knows he is almost as unelectable as Trump.  Plus, his arrogance and contempt for his fellow Republicans  hurts him badly.  Also, the Party knows Cruz wears a fake mask disguising himself from what most know as a nasty guy.  Ever wonder why it is only Cruz’ campaign that has been charged again and again, during this campaign, with dirty campaign tactics?  Speaks for itself.

Much of the aforementioned brings us down to the main question.  What will happen at a contested GOP convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio….as in John Kasich’s Ohio.  The Party dilemma being of what to do should Trump come in with the most delegates, but not enough delegates for the out right winning of the nomination.  Much will depend upon how close Ted Cruz is in delegates.  If it is fairly close, this bodes well for the anti Trump factions keeping in mind the delegates are establishment delegates who mostly want neither of them.  Close means it all opens up into a floor fight that could take many many floor State by State votes. If there is nothing decisive, then it may eventually turn to an alternative candidate.   Who might that be?   Ohio’s own John Kasich.  Kasich knows it.   And, the Party wants it.  If Trump comes in with a huge lead in delegates and is denied, that, my readers, would bring forth a political blood bath the likes of which not seen in a hundred years.  Speculation on this happening is rampant.  But, it could lead to a third Party and even possible, the end of the Republican Party as it is today.  A very scary proposition.

As I see it, that is just not going to happen.  You’ve all heard “God save the Queen (or King)”  Perhaps it should be heard “God save the Republican Party.”  Or some would say good riddance.

Donald Trump shoots from the lip.  Best that can be said. He won big last night in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii losing only to Ted Cruz in very conservative Idaho.  It really was no contest.  He bounced back from slippage vote counts last Thursday.

Two main issues now confront Trump.  Getting more unlikely now, but what is the difference between a “brokered convention” and a “contested election.”   And Can Trump win a Presidential election..

A brokered convention occurs is when nobody has the necessary 1,237 delegates to win the nomination out right.  Then, mainly Party bosses, go into the proverbial smoked filled rooms and decide after “horse trading” who the nominee shall be.   A contested convention is when nobody wins the needed 1,237 and than vote after vote is taken State by State until  a Presidential nominee is selected on the floor of the convention..  While the floor votes are going on, there will be delegate battles going on between the States with an attempt, after trades are made for issues like VP choices…Cabinet preferences and even ambassadorships are being passed out….for some States to trade delegate amounts enough to select a winner.  It could go on for hours even until the wee small hours or possibly carry over until another day.  The Republican’s will not leave the Cleveland July convention without their nominee.

Will Trump win the Presidency?  Read on. With Rubio getting big losses again Tuesday night, very very unlikely he will win his home State of Florida where new polls show him behind 15%+.   Trump is the likely winner.   Gov. John Kasich was tied with  Ted Cruz in Michigan showing enough strength to win his home State of Ohio next Tuesday in the winner take all primary. Should Kasich win Ohio and Cruz continues to win enough delegates, then there is a good chance of a CONTESTED convention.  It simply does not make sense that GOP Party leaders would be dumb enough to try to broker the convention.  Coolers heads likely to prevail.

Will Trump be our next President? Timing is the essence of it all.  With planets spinning, so to speak, Trump comes at the right time for him to win.  First, voters are showing extreme anger benefitting Trump.  They want an outsider.   Forget the liberal pundits saying they are angry at the Republicans.  They are just a part.  Wittingly or not, that anger stems from bad policies or no policy’s from Barack Obama.  Obama shows success at virtually nothing except the ability to speak well enough in using the “Bully pulpit” to confuse mostly the uninformed public that it’s not his fault polls show 70% of the public feels our Country is headed in the wrong direction.  Trump, again last night, demonstrated his uncanny ability to ramble, speak off the cuff, promote himself (and his other successful products on display) and minable words to promote Party unity.  With his rambling dialogue upon his winning night, his products on display such as his water, steaks,  wine and magazine, it looked like the Home Shopping Network.  “And I sold my airlines in a very very good deal” said Trump even predicting he will win the class action lawsuit against Trump University and reopen it soon.  (there…take that Mitt Romney.)  The last word is always Trump’s.

It was vintage Trump last night on all the news outlets for forty minutes.  He took questions from reporters and took no prisoners in his answers.  Arrogant, funny, showmanship, a master salesman captivating audiences and pundits nationwide.  He smartly came up with the idea of the rambling dialogue and minor acceptance speech with reporters questions versus the usual celebration trite events.  Just plain smart.  This is what so many of his partisans want.  No rehearsed usual political comments from the likes of a Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.

Is it enough to win?  Probably.  Why?   Because Hillary is atrociously bad as a candidate.  She wins in the South due to the high Afro American vote.  These are States Republicans typically win.  She actually lost the State of Michigan to Sen. Bernie Sanders in one of the all time biggest upsets with all polls showing her winning big time Tuesday night.  Her unfavorability’s are even higher than Trumps.  “The Donald” has little chance of winning the Hispanic vote and women’s vote.  And there is a limited amount of “blue collar” less educated white males to vote for him.  HOWEVER, Trump has a very good chance of winning “Reagan Democrat’s” in States such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and some northeast area’s that traditionally go for the Democrat’s. Trump even touts he has a chance of winning New York.  Highly doubtful.  But, he could surprise in more typically Democrat States.

If Trump was as politically smart, as he truly is in many area’s, he would swallow his thin skinned pride and put Sen. Marco Rubio on his ticket to win back some of the Hispanic support he is sure to lose at present.   Or, perhaps a woman or a different Hispanic. Let them go out campaigning speaking Spanish.

And, let’s not forget that Hillary Clinton is no sure lock to win the Democrat nomination.  It’s not delegates she will lack, it’s the growing email scandal that the FBI is extremely likely to make public suggesting an indictment even if the Justice Department refuses to pursue the matter.  My thinking being the Democrat’s would have a better chance of winning with a different candidate such as Vice President Joe Biden.  There are others who might jump in as well such as former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, California’s Gov. Jerry Brown and they could drag out Sec. of State John Kerry or Al gore again.

There are so many variables floating around making it impossible for any pundit or blogger, for that matter, to predict what might happen.  Or, what will be the outcome.  The Republican Party views Trump and Cruz as a pick between poison or a bullet.  With Rubio now out of the picture, there certainly will be a push to somehow, some way nominate a different candidate.  If he wins his home State of Ohio, John Kasich anyone?  He’s always been this bloggers choice and easily the most qualified and would unite the Party.  A can do guy who has proven it.  A split in the contested convention between Cruz and Trump supporters might…I said might…just lead to the best answer.

Don’t forget the final, hopefully, Republican debate is Thursdays night on CNN.  Unpredictable or predictable show nobody knows.   Stay with www.jacksjargon.com or my facebook page for Friday round up from Thursday night.