After being thoroughly whipped in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday by Ted Cruz, Donald Trump Is finished as the GOP Presidential nominee. Why? Because he will not have the needed 1,237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination out right on the first ballot. And, there is no way he would win on a second ballot or more ballots because the deeply partisan GOP delegates don’t want him. Same with Ted Cruz. The Republican Party wants the best candidate that can win to almost paraphrase William Buckley’s old line. “Choose the most conservative candidate who can win.” That’s neither one of them.
Trump will retain significant power at the July Republican convention. When he loses the nomination what is he apt to do? Stage chaos leading to a walk out of him and his supporters? Or, for once in his campaign, stifle his ego and retain some dignity by accepting the defeat. Your guess is as good as mine. One thing in favor of the latter is there is going to be time enough in advance that Trump will realize he will not get the nomination. Possibly, I said possibly, he will do the right thing. But, predictability is not Trump’s strong suit. So it’s not likely
Ted Cruz will carry on with his pompous blabber. He’ll do any and everything to try to secure the 1,237 needed because he knows, as well, later ballots for him will be a very very long shot. The Party will be looking for an alternative. And, the prediction of House Speaker Paul Ryan getting the nomination begins to seem more plausible. However, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich still calls it a fantasy. It won’t be Ryan.
Meanwhile Hillary Clinton continues to lay eggs. Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders beat her up again winning five of the last six primary’s. However, only the FBI report leading to an indictment will stop her. Martha Stewart served time in prison for far less than what Mrs. Clinton has done. However, essentially, the fix is in for her. Sanders simply demonstrates what a terrible candidate Hillary Clinton remains.
So what we have here is a two Party mess that gets messier. Cruz fights Trump as Trump fights Cruz. And, the Hillary/Sanders battle is laughable. It is more likely Hillary will weather her storm, even with a horrible FBI report, and receive no indictment and get the Democrat nomination. There is monumental conjecture about what will come out of the Republican convention. Some believe, having won 80% of the delegate’s between them, the nominee has to be either Trump or Cruz. I simply don’t agree. Even at the risk of convention chaos, the Republican Party will turn to a different candidate. Yes, the rule established for Mitt Romney in 2012 says a nominee must have won a minimum majority of delegates in eight States. New rules at convention time can be changed as fast as they were established in 2012.
Republican Chairman Reince Pribus is firm is his belief that the nominee will come from the three candidates running. Not Paul Ryan who has no organization and doesn’t want it. Pribus would know better than anyone as to what’s happening inside the party. All of which suggests Ohio Governor John Kasich will break the Cruz/Trump dead lock as thee compromise candidate. With his record in Ohio giving him a 70% approval rating in his 2nd term,, excellent work in 18 years as a successful Congressman serving the on the Armed Services Committee and the only one to solidly trounce Hillary Clinton in every poll for months, John Kasich is easily the most qualified of the three some.
Getting stronger as a candidate…getting better known as time goes on (many still don’t know him)…John Kasich would get my vote in a New York minute. He has the best chance of winning. Convention chaos or not.
Donald Trump will demonstrate….sore loser or not sore loser. His most critical political decision. Care to guess?
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