Seven of the last ten contested conventions found the front runner not getting the Presidential nomination.  Abraham Lincoln was not nominated until a third ballot.  Donald Trump will continue to “huff and puff” about having the most votes and delegates.  It won’t do him a bit of good.  It looks like GOP Chairman, Reince Priebus has just about had enough from “The Donald.” Or the money people and Party delegates have layed down the law for him.  Said Priebus Friday, “The winner of the nomination will have to have 1,237 delegates.  Close only comes in horseshoes and hand grenades.”   Trite old expression, but it makes it plain.  Trump is far from a sure thing.

However, depending on which poll, Trump has about a 6% lead in Indiana.  And, much the same in California.  Bodes well for him, but California is no winner take all and Indiana does use proportional votes in it’s congressional districts.

Some might say denying Trump the nomination with the most delegates and most votes, although proper, will cause a major chaos.   Says long time political pundit/campaign advisor Republican Mary Matalin…..”It doesn’t matter.  Chaos will come regardless of what happens at the convention.”   And so it goes.  Obviously with Priebus statement yesterday, it is very clear the Party will risk it all with regard to Trump’s antics because his nomination will be too costly.   Losing the Senate and maybe even the House of Representatives is too big a risk to hand the nomination to a man who will never get enough women votes, Hispanic votes and Black votes to win the Presidency.

As for Hillary and Bernie Sanders, they are virtually tied in Indiana and California.  However the big eastern primary wins for her may change the dynamic on those States to follow.  Regardless she will get the nomination except for the potential of the FBI report.

As it stands now, it is most likely Trump will never get the needed delegates.  Ted Cruz very unlikely any chance at the nomination.   Look for a mystery candidate to come forward with nomination.  Even Gov. John Kasich still has a chance.   Just a chance.

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They may be acting like it, but Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have no lock on their Parties nomination.  Hillary still faces the FBI report.  And, head of the FBI, James Comey, said Thursday he will not be rushed towards any deadline pertaining to Hillary Clinton’s email scandal…including the Democrat’s convention.  It all makes sense.  Comey must have an air tight case against her before he releases the FBI report and expects the Justice department to follow up with an indictment. Dem. Candidate Bernie Sanders has held his fire on this issue.  Smartly, he has been criticizing her JUDGEMENT all along.  The report will make it certain. Something bad will come out in the FBI report.  How bad?  We don’t know.  The Democrats joy over the GOP Trump mess will have even a worse time trying to sustain a campaign.  The question is…who will be campaigning?  No way would the Democrat Party want Sanders.  If Hillary Clinton is forced out, Vice President Joe Biden is the likely successor.  However, the timing…organizing…getting on State ballots everywhere makes Trump’s adventures minor compared to the potential calamity for the Democrat’s

After his huge win in New York, Donald Trump wants to make it seem he has the GOP nomination locked up.  He doesn’t.  A teleprompter foreign policy speech coming up has found Trump actually rehearsing.  Preparation has never been Trump’s strong suit.  But, in the back of his mind he keeps railing at the Republican Party and the delegates being “rigged.”  All nonsense. The rules for all States were posted over eight months ago.  Trump simply blew it while Ted Cruz was laying the ground work in many States.  Next Tuesday finds Northeast primaries abounding.  Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island and Connecticut all will be in play and Trump leads in all of them.  But, all delegates will be awarded proportionately. No winner take all.  Here’s his problem.  Said former governor and former head of the Republican Party, Haley Barbour “Donald has been getting up to 40% maximum of the votes so far with New York the exception.”  “He will need 58% of all remaining delegates to get a lock on the nomination with 1,237.”   Not that easy.  After wins in the northeast next Tuesday, here comes trouble.  Primaries in Indiana, Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota are far more conservative.  Indiana’s Governor Mike Pence is no fan of Trump. And, after that is California with its high unpredictable diversity.

Indiana, May 3rd will either break Trump or keep alive his faint hopes for reaching the needed 1,237 delegates to win the Presidential nomination out right.  It has 57 delegates.  The winner gets 30 and 27 additional are selected three from each congressional district.  The polls there have it dead even between Cruz and Trump.  So even if Trump wins the State, he will not get nearly all the delegates.  The remaining States are definite question marks for Trump.  Says Haley Barbour, “If Trump arrives (at the convention) with 1,100 delegate votes, there is a good chance of picking up 137 uncommitted votes.  Under 1,100 delegates, no way.”

So this is why Trumps keeps up with his attacks against the Republican Party.  Accusing them of cheating.  Votes not being counted he keeps saying.  It is because he knows it is overwhelmingly unlikely he will not get the needed 1,237 delegates for the nomination.  His aim is two fold.  Drum up enough support from released delegates to put him over the top on a second ballot.   And to set up deliberate chaos at the convention should he lose out.

Trump creating chaos?   That’s his specialty.  Best bet right now?   Trump will not win the Republican nomination for President and he will not start a 3rd Party movement.  He knows he’d lose a third Party campaign.  Plus, his gigantic ego would be crushed.  He’d rather cause chaos.

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For the first time there is legitimate conjecture Hillary Clinton could lose to Donald Trump in the general election for President.  Tall order.  The movement is still on to stop Trump from getting the nomination.  The odds are very likely he will not get the necessary 1,237 delegates to win the nomination at the GOP convention in July.  Tuesday he shall win in a romp in the New York primary.  The thing to watch is if he gets over 50% of the vote.  If so, he will win all the States delegates. And following up in the eastern primary’s with wins as well.  But out west trouble is forthcoming.   California looms as the deal breaker for “The Donald.”  He is not likely to win big there and there goes the first ballot victory at Cleveland.  Ted Cruz has no chance getting the 1,237.  He hopes for a second ballot win.  Again not likely.  Trump is correct on this one.  Cruz is hated in the Senate.  Considered a blow hard grand stander.  And, yes he cheats (rumored in many ways) and lies.  Ruthless.

The key for Trump at the convention is how close he will come to get the winning margin.  If he falls below 1,100 delegates, he is done.  Then it becomes wide open. Some believe if he is below the magic number he is done regardless of how close.   That’s where huge trouble could be awaiting for the convention.   Cruz will try to swap favors for delegates.  But,  it will fail to happen.

Hillary Clinton is in real trouble in a number of ways.  Her once 30% lead in the New York primary is now down to 10% over Senator Bernie Sanders.  She and her campaign is stale.  There is no enthusiasm or momentum.  Says well known talk show host Laura Ingraham, “She looks tired…uninspiring.”  While Bernie Sanders draws huge crowds of over 20,000 recently, Clinton would be pleased for a thousand.  Says famed columnist George Will “Hillary will unify the Republican Party.”   Her past health issue may be weighing her down as well as her age. She is 68.    Meanwhile, at 74 Sen. Bernie Sanders is still energized.  Trump is 69…seems tireless.  Plus, the weight of unknowing with regard to the coming FBI report no doubt takes a toll.  When will that report ever come out is the question.  No matter what, even a bad report or scolding from the FBI report will not keep her from the nomination.  That report has to be meaty. Only then will it have consequences.

Tuesday’s New York primary will reveal quite a bit. Best guess from here is Trump will get over 50% with Gov. John Kasich finally moving up to second place.  Hillary should win her second home State.  The margin of the win will be of much interest.  Sanders has been a source of amazement.  If his followers truly knew what he stands for, they would finally have some doubts. Then again, maybe not.  They are as crazed as Trump supporters.

So as of this hour, this most baffling Presidential year is still up in the air.  Even the best informed on the inside of all politics have no idea of the outcome.  Also, baffling is the thought of Trump, without the women’s vote, Black vote, Hispanic vote, Hillary Clinton is such a weak candidate, Donald Trump is now thought to be a winner over her.  Me?  Everybody but everybody believes Trump or Cruz will win the GOP nomination.  My guess is no.  They will not. The Republican Party leaders will pull the proverbial “rabbit out of a hat”  Big donors want neither of them.  The Party has major concern of losing the Senate.  Put those two factors together and Republican Party will find a way to block both Trump and Cruz.

As Neil Diamond stills sings on occasion……”Money talks.”

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Donald Trump is never going to be President of the United States.  For that matter, neither is Sen. Bernie Sanders.  Trump has gone from an intriquing source of being spot on in area’s in need of attention in America to a totally self indulgent ego driven train wreck.  In Tuesday’s addition of Trump blaberings, he is accusing the Republican Party of “rigging the election” against him and more silliness.  In doing so he has accomplished nothing to help his campaign and induced some of his less educated followers to begin serious life threatening taunts against officials in Colorado.  All this from his loss in that State where he failed to understand the rules of Colorado selecting delegates. He never complained about the Florida rules giving him all the delegates with him garnering only 40% of the vote. Ted Cruz took advantage in Colorado by knowing the rules.  The Republican Party had nothing to do with it.  States have the autonomy to choose delegates how they wish.  Donald’s ignorance was not bliss.  He acts like a child in a tantrum.

In the very unlikely happening of Trump getting the necessary 1,237 delegates to win the nomination, without the women’s vote, all minority votes and college educated votes he has no chance of beating Hillary Clinton.  Assuming she is not in court defending herself.  Don’t fall prey to Trump winning resounding victories in New York (his home State) and in the East, his hopes in the West in know way will be as accommodating. Ted Cruz’s people have worked California and the West. They are much better organized.

As for Ted Cruz, forget him getting the 1,237 delegates.  He is concentrating  on stopping Trump in a second vote in the GOP contested convention.  However, as delegates free up to vote after a first round of nobody winning the nomination, the Party delegates (mostly Party loyalists) will never vote for a man as detested as Cruz.  Party backing used him to stop Trump in Wisconsin.

The big money donors to the GOP want no part of either one of these arrogant pompous losers to Hillary.  They see the big picture.  Winning is everything.  The key will be keeping everything out in the open during the convention so the Trump contingent understands why Trump is not the nominee.  However, Trump, lacking a shred of dignity, will do everything he can to disrupt the convention.  Makes one remember the old line thrown at communist accuser extrordinair Sen. Joe McCarthy….”Have you no shame Senator.”

So what’s going to happen?   Who will be the Republican nominee?  As House Speaker Paul Ryan has said it has to be someone who was running for President.  On a third ballot, most all delegates will vote for whoever they want.  Take your pick from Kasich, Rubio to Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. It’s anybody’s guess. But, Party insiders have a pretty good idea they’ll never share at this point.

In the forwhatisworth department….President Obama speaking with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday said “There is top secret and then there’s top secret” inferring Hillary’s emails were not significant. “She was, and she has acknowledged this herself, simply careless in what she did.” This is absolute rubbish.   How would he know?  Top secret is top secret.  Also, it is widely known she instructed an aid to tear off the Top Secret heading before sending it to her.  Simply careless?  This is a defense?  The President had no business speaking about an FBI investigation in progress.  He has used that defense often when not wanting to comment on an issue.  And being careless is no defense in this matter.  Obama probably hurt Hillary more than helping her.  Remember Thursday CNN is handling a Hillary/Bernie debate if interested.  Her lead in N.Y cut from 30% to 13%. Whatever happens there is of no consequence.

Careless?   Once I went in front of a judge on a speeding ticket with the excuse “Your honor, I simply didn’t see any speed limit signs posted. There weren’t signs”  Ignorance was my excuse.  The judge banged his gavel. Increased my fine and I left as quickly as possible.  I simply was careless.

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After being thoroughly whipped in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday by Ted Cruz,  Donald Trump Is finished as the GOP Presidential nominee. Why?  Because he will not have the needed 1,237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination out right on the first ballot.  And, there is no way he would win on a second ballot or more ballots because the deeply partisan GOP delegates don’t want him. Same with Ted Cruz.  The Republican Party wants the best candidate that can win to almost paraphrase William Buckley’s old line. “Choose the most conservative candidate who can win.”  That’s neither one of them.

Trump will retain significant power at the July Republican convention.  When he loses the nomination what is he apt to do?  Stage chaos leading to a walk out of him and his supporters?  Or, for once in his campaign, stifle his ego and retain some dignity by accepting the defeat. Your guess is as good as mine.  One thing in favor of the latter is there is going to be time enough in advance that Trump will realize he will not get the nomination.  Possibly, I said possibly, he will do the right thing.  But, predictability is not Trump’s strong suit. So it’s not likely

Ted Cruz will carry on with his pompous blabber.  He’ll do any and everything to try to secure the 1,237 needed because he knows, as well, later ballots for him will be a very very long shot. The Party will be looking for an alternative.  And, the prediction of House Speaker Paul Ryan getting the nomination begins to seem more plausible.  However, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich still calls it a fantasy. It won’t be Ryan.

Meanwhile Hillary Clinton continues to lay eggs.  Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders beat her up again winning five of the last six primary’s.  However, only the FBI report leading to an indictment will stop her. Martha Stewart served time in prison for far less than what Mrs. Clinton has done. However, essentially, the fix is in for her.  Sanders simply demonstrates what a terrible candidate Hillary Clinton remains.

So what we have here is a two Party mess that gets messier.  Cruz fights Trump as Trump fights Cruz. And, the Hillary/Sanders battle is laughable. It is more likely Hillary will weather her storm, even with a horrible FBI report, and receive no indictment and get the Democrat nomination.  There is monumental conjecture about what will come out of the Republican convention.  Some believe, having won 80% of the delegate’s between them, the nominee has to be either Trump or Cruz.  I simply don’t agree.   Even at the risk of convention chaos, the Republican Party will turn to a different candidate.  Yes, the rule established for Mitt Romney in 2012 says a nominee must have won a minimum majority of delegates in eight States.  New rules at convention time can be changed as fast as they were established in 2012.

Republican Chairman Reince Pribus is firm is his belief that the nominee will come from the three candidates running.  Not Paul Ryan who has no organization and doesn’t want it. Pribus would know better than anyone as to what’s happening inside the party. All of which suggests Ohio Governor John Kasich will break the Cruz/Trump dead lock as thee compromise candidate.  With his record in Ohio giving him a 70% approval rating in his 2nd term,, excellent work in 18 years as a successful Congressman serving the on the Armed Services Committee and the only one to solidly trounce Hillary Clinton in every poll for months, John Kasich is easily the most qualified of the three some.

Getting stronger as a candidate…getting better known as time goes on (many still don’t know him)…John Kasich would get my vote in a New York minute.  He has the best chance of winning.  Convention chaos or not.

Donald Trump will demonstrate….sore loser or not sore loser.  His most critical political decision.  Care to guess?

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Politico.com is reporting the likelihood of Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will end up as the Republican Party nominee for President.

Yes, it does make sense.  Chances are almost nil Donald Trump will win the Wisconsin primary Tuesday.  Ted Cruz will win more delegates and that will virtually clinch Trump will not have the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot of an open Republican convention in July.  Neither will Cruz.  Without a win on the first ballots cast by delegates, Trump will never get out of the convention with the nomination.  No way. Fumbling bumbling Trump is simply at his best as a salesman.  Not prepared to be a President as he proved again last week.  Really…women should be punished for having an abortion?  Campaign manager arrested on charges (unproven nonsense) for accosting a reporter.  Drop NATO or totally revamp it?  Running a nasty picture of Cruz’s wife.  It’s all winging it amateur talk. Senator Ted Cruz is simply hated by his Senate colleagues and most of the Party delegates.   Party delegates are mostly Party loyalists who want nothing to do with Cruz where they see no win with him either.  A high percentage of all voters in a Presidential elections vote on personality and likability.  That is not Ted Cruz. He is getting endorsements in order to stop Trump. And Trump has lost the women’s vote.  Can’t win without it.

So with a dead lock looming at the GOP convention, other names will turn up such as Paul Ryan.  Here’s the meat of the Politico story.  “One of the nations best wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60% chance of a convention dead lock (I believe it is considerably higher) and a 90% chance that delegates will turn to House Speaker Paul Ryan.   As Chairman of the National Republican Convention, it will end with him as the nominee of the Party.”

Ohio Gov. John Kasich will attraction attention as well with his success record and the only candidate, at present, who trounces Hillary in all polls taken of the match ups with her.  Or, possibly Kasich as Ryan’s Vice President running mate to secure Ohio for the Republicans.  However, with the mood of the Country wanting an outsider to vote for, two White establishment guys might not be the best idea.  It seems to me a better choice would be an Hispanic such as Rubio.  Or even better, a female Hispanic.  Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico immediately comes to mind.  A Ryan/Martinez ticket would be very attractive to many who don’t follow politics closely.  An experienced highly intelligent youthful Ryan with an attractive personable Hispanic female in Martinez would present the Democrat’s with even more of a challenge than they are now facing.

The typical liberal media keeps reminding everyone what a mess, a rebellion, the Republicans have ignoring Senator Bernie Sanders blowing away Hillary Clinton time after time.  She fears Wisconsin Tuesday. She also fears any Sunday morning political programs.  Might get a tough question.   There is no question the Democrats would find a way to get rid of Sanders should he get close to a nomination.  But, he presents all kinds of problems for Hillary who is a terrible campaigner now showing mean temperament and facing FBI reports imminent.  The Republicans face a mess?   The Democrat’s mess may be messier.

During my life time I have often heard of the demise, or ending of the Republican Party.   It doesn’t happen.  Why?  Because the quality of the candidate takes over during a Presidential election and public votes for whoever appeals to them the most.  The key for their Party this time is to somehow smooth over disgruntled Trump supporters without total turmoil.   However, when the dust settles and a solid Presidential ticket is campaigning, who would a Trump supporter vote for?   Hillary?  Laughable. True, some may not vote at all.  Trump leading a third Party?   Highly unlikely because Trump knows he would not win.  Losing is an anathema to Trump’s monumental ego.

In a way, the mess of both Parties might be a good thing.  Political interest and voting has been on the wane in the USA.  There’s plenty of interest this time around.  Even the no nothings might vote in a higher percentage.  Might.

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