For the first time there is legitimate conjecture Hillary Clinton could lose to Donald Trump in the general election for President. Tall order. The movement is still on to stop Trump from getting the nomination. The odds are very likely he will not get the necessary 1,237 delegates to win the nomination at the GOP convention in July. Tuesday he shall win in a romp in the New York primary. The thing to watch is if he gets over 50% of the vote. If so, he will win all the States delegates. And following up in the eastern primary’s with wins as well. But out west trouble is forthcoming. California looms as the deal breaker for “The Donald.” He is not likely to win big there and there goes the first ballot victory at Cleveland. Ted Cruz has no chance getting the 1,237. He hopes for a second ballot win. Again not likely. Trump is correct on this one. Cruz is hated in the Senate. Considered a blow hard grand stander. And, yes he cheats (rumored in many ways) and lies. Ruthless.
The key for Trump at the convention is how close he will come to get the winning margin. If he falls below 1,100 delegates, he is done. Then it becomes wide open. Some believe if he is below the magic number he is done regardless of how close. That’s where huge trouble could be awaiting for the convention. Cruz will try to swap favors for delegates. But, it will fail to happen.
Hillary Clinton is in real trouble in a number of ways. Her once 30% lead in the New York primary is now down to 10% over Senator Bernie Sanders. She and her campaign is stale. There is no enthusiasm or momentum. Says well known talk show host Laura Ingraham, “She looks tired…uninspiring.” While Bernie Sanders draws huge crowds of over 20,000 recently, Clinton would be pleased for a thousand. Says famed columnist George Will “Hillary will unify the Republican Party.” Her past health issue may be weighing her down as well as her age. She is 68. Meanwhile, at 74 Sen. Bernie Sanders is still energized. Trump is 69…seems tireless. Plus, the weight of unknowing with regard to the coming FBI report no doubt takes a toll. When will that report ever come out is the question. No matter what, even a bad report or scolding from the FBI report will not keep her from the nomination. That report has to be meaty. Only then will it have consequences.
Tuesday’s New York primary will reveal quite a bit. Best guess from here is Trump will get over 50% with Gov. John Kasich finally moving up to second place. Hillary should win her second home State. The margin of the win will be of much interest. Sanders has been a source of amazement. If his followers truly knew what he stands for, they would finally have some doubts. Then again, maybe not. They are as crazed as Trump supporters.
So as of this hour, this most baffling Presidential year is still up in the air. Even the best informed on the inside of all politics have no idea of the outcome. Also, baffling is the thought of Trump, without the women’s vote, Black vote, Hispanic vote, Hillary Clinton is such a weak candidate, Donald Trump is now thought to be a winner over her. Me? Everybody but everybody believes Trump or Cruz will win the GOP nomination. My guess is no. They will not. The Republican Party leaders will pull the proverbial “rabbit out of a hat” Big donors want neither of them. The Party has major concern of losing the Senate. Put those two factors together and Republican Party will find a way to block both Trump and Cruz.
As Neil Diamond stills sings on occasion……”Money talks.”
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