While many media pundits said Hillary won the first debate easily many of “the folks” disagreed.  Time magazine’s poll has Trump winning 55%-45%.  However CNN’s poll had Hillary winning 67% to 27%.  But, CNN did admit they polled more Democrat’s. Frankly jacksjargon.com saw it as a win for Hillary.  She was far better prepared, had Trump on the defensive most of the time.  Her massive preparation and experience caused her to shine.  While Trump tried to answer questions, many unimportant dragged up from the past, he never took advantage of pivoting onto Mrs. Clinton’s problems.  One note for Trump, he won the first half hour virtually all agreed upon. The first half hour is the most important.

Many Trump supporters likely woke up feeling down for their man this morning.  Don’t be.  Why?  First debate results fade quickly in voters minds.  The final debate right before the election is a key.  Trump is a quick study who will be better prepared next debate Oct. 9th.  Lester Holt won’t be the moderator.  In the beginning he was fair, but his questions later were on issues the public has little interest such as the birther matter, his tax returns, (polls show the public doesn’t care.  Dem.’s merely want it to find something to exploit as they did to Mitt Romney).   Holt asked Mrs. Clinton nothing on her illegal server in her home…lies to the public and FBI…her wish to add thousands of Syrian refugees…Benghazi and her Libya disaster….the Scandals of the Clinton Foundation…foreign policy blunders…Obamacare…women suffering in Countries her foundation took in millions from.  Trump’s mistake was not bringing these matters up or pivoting to these matters.   He tried to answers some questions forty years old.     The birther issue?   Tax returns?   Forty year old discrimination suit with no final decision?    These are nothing issues compared to what Hillary should have been asked to answer.  Releasing top classified emails, now known even including Obama, endangering our national security.  From peanuts to cashews issues.  Was Lester Holt trying to make up for Matt Lauer?  Looked like it

Next up Oct. 9th will be a town hall debate with questions coming from the audience. This will be far more difficult for Mrs. Clinton.  And, Trump, having experienced his first debate and this town hall format will likely hit her vulnerabilities much more In the open.  Hillary, without her pre rehearsed arsenal, will not be in control as she wishes per last night.  Shown obviously by never having a real press conference or merely getting soft ball questions from adoring reporters.

Then the all important final debate hosted by Fox News Chris Wallace Oct. 19th opposite no NFL action. Rest assured, just as his famous father Mike Wallace, Wallace will won’t be gun shy.  No doubt tough direct questions, far different from Lester Holt, are already formulating in his mind after what he saw obviously missed last night.  By this time Monday nights debate is ancient history and the final debate will be most prominent in the voters mines.

Give Hillary credit for the first debate.   But, Romney clobbered Obama in their first debate…then stumbled…Reagan lost his first debate badly…then beat Walter Mondale in 49 of 50 States.  Plus, Trump’s TV ads are finally running in key States after being pummeled 145 million dollars to none for months.   Then, and only then, will the voters have a more complete picture of who they are voting for.   The ending of a fair fight.

If you listen to new post debate polls, listen for any losses to Trump from college educated people and woman.   But, even if there is a loss, Trump made no glaring mistake Monday night disqualifying himself.  I still like his chances because this election is about change.  And that is not Hillary’s strong suit.  A relic of the past.

www.jacksjargon.com

In 2004 George W. Bush, according to overwhelming sources, lost all three debates to Sen. John Kerry.  And yet, Bush won 286 electoral votes and winning re-election by three million votes.  So winning the debates is not the end all to anything.  However, this year it appears very likely to be a strong determining factor in who will be our next President.  But, winning the first debate, of three, normally determines nothing.  Romney trounced Obama in their first debate.   Mondale beat stumbling Ronald Reagan in their first debate.  Reagan won 49 of 50 States.

With Donald Trump’s strong momentum at present, winning the first debate could be the key to the Presidency.  It will keep and grow his steady gains.  Hillary has now pulled out of Ohio and sending reinforcements to Wisconsin.  The race is dead even.  No question.  One very important factor is the first half hour of the debate.

The question is who will win, in the public’s view, and your view.  First, forget all the pundits summations after the debate.  Depending on which channel you watch the pundits are bias.  The spin room post debate comments are meaningless.  All that matters is the voters view point.  In the past, likeability has been a key.  It is why Bush beat Kerry.  Not a good chance this time.  Mrs. Clinton has proven to be very unlikeable.  And Trump is no bargain either.  If either one can show any humor, it will be a major positive.  Not likely.  Trump must show composure, appear Presidential, avoid showing anger and seem in command.

Here is what either must NOT do.  For Hillary Clinton she needs to stay away from long answers.  It’s boring, wonkish and a turn off to the all important Independents and undecided voters.  They want simple and straight forward answers.  She absolutely cannot lie anymore. She cannot show any health issues.  And if she continues her main strategy of diminishing Trump, he wins.  That has been mostly her entire campaign.

For Trump, he cannot show any odd temperament. He must not be condescending. And he absolutely cannot exaggerate.  A continuous fault.

For Trump to win he needs to stay within his winning core issues.  Terrorism, immigration, the economy, the veterans and especially strong on law and order.  No insults or taunts, but hammer in on the miserable happenings of the last eight years.  This is his strongest argument.  Obama and Hillary’s record as Sec. of State are viewed as failure.   Almost 70% of Americans feel the Country is headed in the wrong direction. Even liberals admit they cannot point to anything of substance Mrs. Clinton accomplished during her four years as Sec. of State or as Senator.  Point in fact, things have gotten worse world wide.   Her willingness to add 50% more immigrants from Syria and other terrorist hot spots.  And, with another FBI email document dump Friday, overwhelmingly hurting her is THE EMAIL SCANDAL AND HER UNTRUSTWORTHYNESS.  The pubic simply does not trust her.

For Hillary to win, she must thrust her experience in government as a Senator, 1st lady and Secretary of State.  She must stand by what she views as accomplishments of the Obama administration.   Point to what she has done in the past to help minorities, women and imply the significance being the first female President.  What she believes needs to be done for immigrants.  She will clearly have an advantage of knowledge of world leaders and the structure of world events.

Summing up, Hillary’s task is much harder Monday night than Trump’s.  In a way she is stuck defending the indefensible.  During the campaign she has not clearly stated why she is running.  That is Trump’s strength.  Mrs. Clinton must prove her superior experience trounces anything Trump can say or do.  But, again, longer answers are generally harmful.

American’s want change.  Her problem is defending the past.  And handing out more of the same.  If “The Donald” can show he is no threat, act Presidential, show American’s positives for the future and appear Presidential, as her equal, he will win.  And a win here shall increase his very strong momentum at present.

Frankly, I would rather be in “his shoes” than hers.   More pressure shall be on Hillary.  She is supposed to be the far superior candidate.   But, her Achilles Heel is the email scandal and the voters awareness of her being untrustworthy.  From that there is no escape.  Or as they say in the boxing world…..”She can run, but she can’t hide.

www,jackjargon.com

Fox Polls have been as accurate as all polls in the past.  With that said, Clinton supporters becoming more and more worried.  Especially considering her campaign has out spent Trump’s campaign 5 to 1.  So what do these results tell you?

Battle ground States of LIKELY voters (not merely registered voters) Nevada…Trump 43%  Hillary…40%…..in critical wavering North Carolina…Trump 45%  Hillary 40%.  In all important Ohio…Trump 42% Hillary 37%.   How come?  Enthusiasm.   Trump rallies draw normally about 10,000.  A good crowd for Hillary Clinton is about 250.  An NBC poll finds on honest and trustworthy…Trump 41%  Hillary 31%.  What is so shocking is the Clinton campaign has spent tons of money into those three States seemingly to no avail.  As for the all important Independent voters….Donald Trump has 20% more in all three of those States mentioned.  In order to win, Trump must win those three States plus Florida and one other State as yet unknown.  Third Party candidates are garnering 12% of the vote.  Likely to lessen at ballot box time.  Past surveys show those votes would hurt Mrs. Clinton more.

Says famed anti Trump columnist Charles Krauthammer….”The reason Hillary hasn’t seized a message is she has no message.  I like children and I will fight for children. What’s that?  The most banal message in political history.”

At present, nobody knows what will happen Nov. 8th.  But momentum is all on Donald Trump’s side.  However, all this can go in a flash with a weak performance on Monday nights debate.  The pressure on both candidates is enormous..   Not to mention the pressure on NBC moderator Lester Holt.  After Matt Lauer was beaten to a pulp in the media after his one hour questioning of both candidates.  Democrat’s were furious because Trump came off the likely winner.  Although Afro American, Holt is a registered Republican. Jacks jargon would hate being any of the three.  Heart attack city.

Donald Trump breaks all the molds of political history.  So where do we go after today? Two make or break items.  In the debates, it’s said Mrs. Clinton is cramming like mad, if she demonizes Trump and he is seen as normal…he wins.   But in the end, remember there are three debates, it likely will all boil down to Trump’s enthusiasm versus Hillary Clinton’s Democrat get out the vote ground game.  Things trending Trump.  But, his road to the needed 270 electoral votes much tougher than hers.

Care to guess?  Your guess is as good as mine.  Stand by for my review of what to look for in the debates on www.jacksjargon.com or my facebook page.

As CNN’s John King said after Donald Trump made his 30 second speech…”He played us.”  Oh we will hear endless media outrage how Trump mistreated President Obama by asking for his actual birth certificate, they will find the air fizzled out of the balloon.  Trump used his stage with the media standing ready to pounce upon whatever he says over the latest issue, he and his staff pulled off the perfect squelch by Trump using the 35 minutes of TV air time as an info commercial.  (See his speech on my facebook page)  First he received major attention on the opening of his new hotel.   Then he paraded out a seemingly endless stream of military Medal of Honor winners and military supporters all giving him glowing support.   Anticipation building as the networks waited for what they thought would be a Trump endless rant at Hillary and Obama.  Instead, he comes out and thanks his supporters and issues a 15 second statement saying “Hillary’s campaign in 2008 started it and I finished it.  Barack Obama was born in America…period.”   Then referred back to the important issues of making America great again and walked off of the stage. Absolutely perfect.  It makes for a perfect brief sound bite the networks are going to find hard to ignore Friday.  Plus he throws in blame upon Hillary Clinton.  Although in the 2008 Hillary/Obama primary battle, Mrs. Clinton did not utter the words, her supporters did and it was put on line igniting the whole Obama birther issue.

The stage will now be set for endless media blistering attacks against Trump.  “He’s a liar.”   “Hillary didn’t start it.”   And on and on.  All the time wasted upon an issue that only Hillary supporters and Afro American’s care about (Trump won’t get much of the Black vote anyway) while Trump will go to his merry way  talking on issues that at present are the key to his winning the election. Independents, Mrs. Clinton is far behind with them, are not going to suddenly flee Trump over this old issue.  And, Hillary will waste important time fool hardy on this old issue.

One must truly congratulate campaign media advisor for Trump, Kellyann Conway for today and the last weeks of now putting Trump in a position to win.  Seeing the results, Trump now listens and trusts her.  She even got him to lower his voice.  If Trump wins, he ought to buy her ten Cadillac’s.

With his gains, States thought to be lost, Colorado, Nevada, Michigan and others are back in play.  He is almost a lock in Iowa now.  His Black American support is almost as high as Mitt Romney in 2012.   And, Nevada, heavily populated with Hispanics, shows the Republican Senator candidate, Joe Heck, winning Harry Reid’s old seat and Trump now in the lead.   Of note, Hispanics are typically hard workers.  The belief that Trump will create jobs has huge appeal.

So stand by for the barrage of anti Trump talk on the news networks of the birther issue and going after Trump.  It is “fools gold.”  It is not a winning issue and leaves Trump more time to keep hammering the critical issues of the day.  Trump repeatedly is hitting hard with speeches on so many important topics.  As for Hillary Clinton….aside for Trump bashing, does anyone really know what her campaign is about.   Jacksjargon has no clue.

Talk about walking back from the dead.  Donald Trump has staged an incredible come back.  By gosh…he just might win.  His appearance on Thursday’s Dr. Oz program was a major success in two ways.  1. His health is excellent except for being over weight at 236 lbs. The man is in incredibly good health with very good genes. Some leftist media types saying he is at 256 lbs. to 266 lbs. are conning you. 2. His daughter Ivanca appeared with him and is becoming a major attraction in her own right. Articulate, successful, mother of three, including an infant, and an outspoken advocate for women’s rights. Doesn’t hurt to be attractive too.  She was the one to persuade her father into his latest child care plan.  It can’t help but gain back some of the lost female votes.

However, the major news, verified in two polls, has Trump leading Hillary in all important Ohio by 4-6%.  He also leads by 2% in critical Florida. Keying in upon a major bell weather Florida county near Tampa that Obama won, Trump leads by over 13%.   And, gaining in States that the Clinton’s people had pulled their ads thought to be “In the bag.” They are not.  He leads in Nevada…gaining in Pennsylvania.  The momentum is obvious.   Plus these polls were taken before Mrs. Clinton’s disasterus  past weeks with the major stumble caught on tape.  Hillary hiding her pneumonia, true to form as her nature, has backfired adding to her untrustworthy numbers.  The most major danger of the blood clots leading to the brain put on the serious drug Coumadin still gets buried.  And don’t forget her five falls.  One causing a serious concussion.  Another a broken elbow.

All this while the Clinton campaign had been running ads 12 to 1 against Trump.   Plus, the polls also measure the enthusiasm aspect.  She 15% behind Trump in that category.  It’s not that Trump has been gaining that much, although he is gaining, it’s that her ratings keep falling. But, never under estimate the huge success of the Democrat get out the vote factor on election day.

Throw in what has become a theme taken up by Trump supporters of Hillary’s dumb remarks that half of Trump supports are deplorable racists, homophobiac’s, Islamic phobiac’s and whatever else she threw in…Trump supporters are selling deplorable supporter tee shirts by the  thousands. It has become a movement.  And, it’s based on one key factor.  Our Country wants CHANGE.

If all this isn’t bad enough for Democrat’s hoping to win the Senate, there is more bad news.  There appears, in conjunction with Trump’s growing appeal, a dimming hope they will take over the Senate according to Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin.  Who is flat out worried.  Twenty four Republicans Senators, half running in blue States, are more than holding their own. Only ten Democrat Senators are running for reelection.  They need a net pick up of five seats should Trump win.

So now we approach the first, and most major, debate.  Monday Sept. 26th hosted by NBC’s Lester Holt.  With Hillary’s thirty year career in politics, she is expected to outshine Trump.  She must obviously clearly win.  Trump, most believe, merely must appear competent, not temperamental (most believe she will try to make him angry) and act Presidential.  Some have said if Trump just stands there and reads the phone book he will appear strong.  All of which brings me to Woody Allen’s old line…”90% of success in life is just showing up.”   Nah…he must do more than that…much more.

www.jacksjargon.com

Oh it’s just mild pneumonia…she’s fine…everything is going to be hunkey dory.  Nonsense.   Hillary Clinton’ medical history and current condition is such that none other than hardened Dem. pundit Cokie Robert’s says behind the scenes plans are being made as to who might succeed her if she’s forced to drop out of the race.  VP Joe Biden is being talked about.  However, it may be impossible in such a shortage of time.  VP Candidate Tim Kaine is more likely in this unlikely event.

Dr. Kelly Powers, surgeon at Stamford Hospital says Hillary’s Deep Venous Thrombosis is far more worrisome even if Clinton’s people are telling the truth after she virtually collapsed Sunday from pneumonia. The truth seldom comes from the Clinton’s.  This is a blood clot that can lead to terrible consequences including life threatening. A clot can form and be released into the body most anytime.  Once is concerning.  Hillary has had it three times.   She is on a serious  blood thinner drug coumadin.  Doctors will not disclose a patients condition without permission.   Hillary will never grant it..  The voters of America have a right to know the health condition of both Presidential candidates.

In chronological order here’s Hillary’s medical happenings:  2005 faints before a speech. 2009 she falls down and breaks her elbow.  2011 falls bording an airplane. 2012 falls again this time causing a concussion delaying her Benghazi testimony.  2013 suddenly wearing heavy thick glasses due to dizziness and vision problems. February 2016 falls walking up stairs.  During the last two weeks two major uncontrolled coughing spells likely due to her worsening lung condition.  Sunday at the 9/11 ceremony she leaves early.   Virtually collapsing, appearing to be incapable of entering her sports vehicle while having to wait 10-15 minutes because of the suddenness of her circumstances.  Three people, secret service people, lift her onto the vehicle.

Now we’re supposed to believe this scandal ridden woman is ready to be elected to the Presidency of the United States?   When a baseball player, or any major athlete is traded to a different team, they must undergo a complete physical.  Instead we will get carefully worded medical statements from the Clinton’s doctor who Hillary controls in her hip pocket.

ABC’s John Karl reports not revealing Mrs. Clinton’s diagnosed pneumonia on Friday was “borderline deception.”   Supposedly she was “over heated” Sunday on a beautiful day of low humidity and temperatures in the low 80’s.  Then three hours later she makes an appearance in front of her daughters apartment building trying to confirm to all that she is perfectly fine.  This makes jacks jargon skeptical of a so called recovery this fast.  Pneumonia?  Perhaps.  And perhaps not.  Who knows with the Clinton’s.  Could it be she was pumped up with something to make her seem back to normal?   Nothing would be a surprise.

It might be worth considering Hillary Clinton might be having minnie strokes known as TIA’s for Transient Ischemic Attacks.  This is when someone loses consciousness for as little as 30 seconds to several minutes.  They have no memory of what happened.  Suffer no debilitating effects.  Bounce back quickly and often have a serious stroke in the offing.  It’s conceivable this could account for her numerous falls.

Donald Trump is readying a full disclosure of his medical records and dwelling on Hillary’s miserable condemnation of “about half his supporters.  And “The Donald” finally keeping his mouth shut about Hillary’s latest health problem wishing her a speedy recovery.  Hillary was scheduled for a California fund raising trip Tuesday and Wednesday.  No matter how ill she is Hillary will find a way to be back on her feet by Thursday.  She has to convince the voting public she is perfectly fine.   Only she isn’t.   And, in two weeks she is going to debate Donald Trump in the most important moment of her political life.  One can only guess what she will be pumped up with to make it through a ninety minute debate.

Think what you wish.  Love her or hate her.   And let’s not forget her corruption leading to exposing our nations most important secrets to the world.  HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT FIT MENTALLY OR PHYSICALLY TO BECOME PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.

www.jacksjargon.com

Finally a Fox News rep gets to handle a Presidential debate.  For the first time in the channels 20 year history of  Fox News they will have one person in charge of running a debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.  And no, it’s not Bill O’Reilly.

Chris Wallace says he is thrilled to be selected to question the candidates in the final Presidential debate scheduled for October 19th.  He says it’s a great honor, great responsibility and so proud that the highest rated news channel, by far, finally gets to show what they can do in the highest stakes game of Presidential Debates.  Says Wallace he doesn’t know how he was chosen but he got the call.  And glad his answering service was not on when the call came through.

The first debate, figured to be rated the highest debate ever, will be handled by NBC’s Lester Holt on September 26th.  October 9th the questioners will be ABC’s Martha Raddatz and CNN’s Anderson Cooper.  Wallace may handle the most important debate being the final one before the November election November 8th.  The Vice President debate is scheduled for October 4th hosted by Chicago’s and CBSN’s Elaine Quijano.  A Pilipino American and anchor of a digital news service.

Each debate will have six topics of 15 minutes each.  The moderator will ask their own questions to the candidates given two minutes to respond. Following their answers there will be eleven minutes of open discussion.  Oh brother will the fur fly here.

These four debates, including the VP debate, may very well decide the Presidential election.  The first debate likely will have the largest television audience ever for an event such as this.  However, it will be up against Monday Night NFL football on cable TV.  In the past, the debates always overwhelm football.  However, the October 9th debate will be up against the hugely popular Sunday night NFL football on NBC.  The scheduled game at this point will be between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers.  Here could be a problem for NBC and the debate audience.  A huge New York audience against the legendary Packers will damage ratings on this one.  Likely to go on as scheduled (there always can be a change) with NBC coverage to be transferred to their poorly rated sister cable station MSNBC.

Fox News Chris Wallace is the son of his most famous father Mike Wallace.  Long time 60 Minutes correspondent known for a style of uncompromising direct questions and exposing criminal enterprises. Some would call Mike Wallace infamous.  But always entertaining.  Near the end of his life, Mike Wallace appeared with his son Chris on Fox News Sunday in an interview.  At the end, in a very touching moment, father reached to shake hands with his son and said the most wonderful thing a father can say to his child…”I’m so proud of you.”

Is there any question Chris Wallace will have this on his mind in preparation for his handling of the final debate, Oct. 19, a Wednesday?   His sentimental thoughts have to be “oh how I wish Dad could see me doing this debate.”  But, true to his profession, true to his news network, true to himself, but most of all true to his father where he learned his interviewing skills, my bet would be on Chris asking the toughest questions in what very well be the most critical moments in our Nations future.  That being the final debate.  And, somewhere, somehow, surely his famous father is more proud than ever.  www.jacksjargon.com

Just when one thinks Trump’s candidacy is rolling he shoots himself in the foot yet again.  After an excellent, and risky, Presidential type performance with the Mexican President during the day, he returns at night to deliver a fiery immigration speech that sets back his campaign.  What on earth was he thinking?  Was he getting cocky because his poll numbers have been soaring against Hillary?   Cocky because of his obvious success with the President of Mexico?  Jacksjargon would love to know when Wednesday nights speech was written.   At an hour and 15 minutes, it was thirty minutes too long.  It was a speech easily seen by undecided voters as an anti Hispanic message just as much as it pleased voters who were already going to vote for him.  In Wednesday nights speech Trump had an opportunity to reach the all important college educated White female voters he desperately needs due to his lack of minority support.  Plus more Independents he is attracting.  He failed.  What he spoke about was worthy, but sensibly needless.  The two main issues to Americans in all polls is the economy and terrorism.  Immigration is far down the list.  He missed a key opportunity that MAY cost him the Presidency.

It’s MAY cost him only because Hillary Clinton is the all time worst Democrat candidate.  In addition to every sort of obvious lie and corruption charge, it now has been found Hillary was still sending classified emails AFTER she was Secretary of State.  As a mere private citizen.  One who feels she is above the law and can hide to run out the clock on getting elected on Nov. 8th.   Trump had just about tied her in the national polls and pulled a slight lead in several key battleground States.  Her unfavorable ratings are now just as high as Trump’s.  She is either too lazy to campaign hard, possibly in weakened health or simply wants to avoid at all costs having to answer anymore questions about her never ending scandals.   And that is Trump’s saving grace.

Thursday Trump did what was best for him.  A much welcoming crowd to the American Legion in Cincinnati and off to another speech later in the day..  One outstanding trait that serves “The Donald” well is his amazing energy.  At 69 years of age, the man is amazing.  Either running a fumes or that is simply what he is like that made him successful.  He just never stops.

So now we wait for another round of polls to see if his momentum was thwarted due to his worthless immigration speech Wednesday night.  Or does one mess after another keep Mrs. Clinton in her downward spiral.  Two candidates so unpopular that the two other candidates, Libertarian ex Gov. Gary Johnson and Green Party (socialist) candidate Jill Stein could actually impact the election.  If they are a factor, Trump will luck out because they take more votes away from Hillary.

It may all boil down to the debates beginning Sept. 28th.  Hillary cramming her wonk books full of knowledge that may hurt much as help her.  And, Trump doing minimal prep preferring to “wing it” as usual.  That’s who he is.  Plus, there is still a realistic chance WikiLeaks will deliver a disaster expose’ of Hillary corruption from her hidden emails likely hacked from her unprotected server.  Dem.’s pooh pooh it, but are actually worried.   If those leaks could get the head of the Democrat Party fired along with two others on a secure server, one can only imagine what an October surprise it might be. Who knows?   It might force Hillary to actually answer tough questions publicly.  A campaign first.

www.jacksjargon.com