Monthly Archives: November 2018

Aftermath Election Perspective is Positive

Here’s the lead…Obama’s 1st mid term he lost 63 House seats and lost 6 Senate seats.  Bill Clinton lost 54  House seats and 8 Senate seats.  President Trump?  He lost 33 House seats and GAINED 3-5 Senate seats. Democrat’s spent millions more on these elections and failed. The Senate is the key because they pass or defeat any Democrat House passed legislation.  Remember Democrat Senator Harry Reid?   He failed to even bring up for a vote many bills passed in the House of Representatives.  The public failed to realize the do nothing Congress was essentially Sen. Harry Reid.

Every Senator President Trump campaigned for won.  Including even underdog DeSantis winning the Fla. governorship.  The Justice Kavanaugh terrible and false treatment in the Supreme Court hurt Democrat Senators terribly.  All who voted no on confirmation lost their election.  The only one, Sen. Joe Manchin, who voted for Kavanaugh won reelection.

Many new House members campaigned on being moderates.   Either it was a phony attempt merely to win.  Or, they were sincere giving the new House Speaker trouble such as House Republicans created on themselves. Progressive socialists versus moderate Democrat’s.  What does it tell us?  Will Democrat’s in the House work to get things done in compromise legislation. Ex Gov. of Pennsylvania, Ed Randell, pleaded Tuesday night for Democrat’s to work on solving important issues in legislation. No way will this happen.  With nut cases such as Maxine Waters nothing but investigations to hurt the President will come about.  The endless House actions to hurt President Trump will back fire as it did Republicans on Bill Clinton’s impeachment.  And Clinton actually committed crimes.  Lying to the Feds and to a grand jury.  He lost his law license and these were high crimes and misdemeanors. Clinton won reelection easily.

As previously mentioned, before the new House members are sworn in in January, this will be Trumps last chance to fund the border wall.   Be ready for a Government shut down.  Nancy Pelosi said she will never give in on wall funding. But, she is not in power until January.  Trump will insist on wall funding or not sign the new federal budget.  Shut downs normally hurt the Republicans.  However, with two years before the Presidential election, a shut down will be distant history. More issues will have evolved.

President Trump is now the Republican Party.  He has recognized he needs to tone down his rhetoric.  If so, with his huge accomplishments and many more to come, it is very likely he will get four more years.   Who’s going to beat him? Elizabeth Warren,  Joe Biden, Cory Booker.  No way.  A fresh face must come forward.  And Maxine Waters will be of no help.


Democrat’s Disappointed

As of 1:30 A.M. Eastern time, Democrat’s are disappointed (says John King and others at CNN) even though they won the House of Representatives by 35-38 votes, they did nothing as expected in winning governorships, lost Ohio and Florida critical to 2020 Presidential and had a disaster in the Senate.  As of this hour, Republicans have gained four Senate seats and are winning in two others.

Best guess in the end the Republicans will go from 51 Senators to approximately 56.  It means another Supreme Court justice will sail through. Also, Pelosi will be acting Speaker for a while. It is likely she will lose in January to a new Democrat Speaker.  One even more radical then her.  Young Democrat women won big. As many as six or more.  Young and leftist’s.

So now more divided government than ever.  It could work one of two ways. Democrats could now work with President Trump in getting worth while legislation through.  But, nothing they propose will get passed without approval in the Senate or not vetoed by the President. They will need to be faithful in compromise legislation. On the other hand they could just be a problem child doing nothing more than investigating the President looking for some grounds for impeachment. Congressman Gerald Nadler will be working for ways to even impeach Justice Bret Kavanaugh.  Simply hopeless.  Waste of every ones time.  The Republican controlled Senate is never going to have enough votes to convict anyone out of office.

So what do you think the Democrat’s will do in their newly controlled House of Representatives in January?   What is likely?  Answer is they will never work with President Trump.   Never.  They hate him for everything.  Mostly for beating Hillary.  Nothing but noise will come from the House for two years.  Worthless investigations looking for anything to convict somebody.  Proposing worth while compromise legislation is a thing of the past.  Especially now when you have added young radical women who have no use for our form of government. Nor the huge successes during the past two years from President Trump. Majority of these new women in congress are socialists. Little life experience or education in civics. Jacksjargon sees a fiasco coming.

It is conceivable President Trump, knowing he will never get funding for the wall when the new House takes power in January, will pressure (many believe already agreed upon) with Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell to not approve the next budget without funding for the wall. Knowing Trump and his regret for signing the last budget of 1.7 trillion to get funding for the military and giving in to Democrat programs, Trump is likely to shut down the government. He simply promised it and the next few months may be his last chance.  Plus, two years hence, the shutdown will be old news.  Stand by for this one.

If you are a backer of President Trump, the irony of it all is this new House of Representatives will provide the basis for a voter rebellion.  American’s will lose patience with these extremists.  And that forms the basis for the reelection of President trump in 2020.  That is the essence of what happened in these off year elections 2018.  The Democrat’s won some Nov. 6th, 2018, but are more than willing to lose big time after the noise they are going to making.

It’s losing by winning.  And they are oblivious.

Who is going to win?

If anyone wants to tell you who will win the off year elections next Tuesday, what’s that old country expression…”pay them no mind.”  Because nobody knows.  Jacksjargon will touch on some key variables and give an informed guess.  Variables and past mid term election results likely better than polls.

First let’s consider polls and simply say “They ain’t what they used to be.”  What poll said Trump would become President.  They aren’t to be trusted anymore because of technological change and one specific pertaining to Republicans. It is easy to confirm the hesitancy of people to wear a Make America Great Again cap. Fear of getting accosted.  Fear even on the phone to say they are a Trump supporter.   They have been bashed so often by this terrible political atmosphere. Also, with one exception (Rasmussen) polls tend to over sample Democrat’s.  Throw in trying to poll people with cell phones who are often unreachable and you have the basis of the polling problem.  Closet Trump supporters are there. This variable leans Republican.  If a race is now called dead even, better chance it goes Republican.

Another variable is Trump campaigning.  For one thing he is a helava campaigner.  Plus, he never stops.  More energy than a four year old. Hillary was a terrible campaigner.  Lazy.  Unmoving speaker and over confident.  Let’s face it.  A high percentage of Americans simply didn’t and still don’t like her.  So Trump won perhaps due to the combination of the two. Maybe he lucked out against a terrible candidate.  However, outrageous as he is, Trump speaks to voters like no President has ever done.  He gets through to the average person.  A billionaire connecting with charisma to Joe Average.  Go figure. Variable leans Republican.

This off year election will find more American’s voting likely than ever before. Most people don’t vote in off year elections.  The Presidential elections bring out the semi know nothings and bonefide no nothings.  For years one hears this bunch tell you…”I vote for the man (or woman).”  It’s always been clear to jacksjargon this immediately tells me they know nothing of the issues.  It’s who they like personally.  There will be more of them this election. That’s a key variable. Another is hearing about of the “blue wave” of Democrat’s who will throw out the Republican’s as almost always happens in off year elections following a Presidential election.   Does a low info voter back Trump?  History shows Party out of power wins seats big time. Obama lost 63 House seats.  Clinton lost 52.  Reagan lost 26.  Average loss is 34. Democrat’s need 23 to take control of the House of Representatives.  Variable leans heavily Democrat

As for the news media…here is where it gets almost laughable. In case study’s, not polls, 88% of all media stories are negative to Republicans.  93% negative stories on Trump.   And yet his ratings keep growing.  Up to 47% to 48% in most polls.  Even in liberal NBC’s ratings. He is well ahead of Obama at the same point in their Presidency.  How can this be? There are only two media outlets for Trump.  Rush Limbaugh and Fox News. He is hammered all day by all others. This is a variable that cannot be over looked. Somebody is paying attention to the lowest unemployment ever for Blacks and Hispanics…Americans are more optimistic about the future in decades…wages going up…foreign countries now paying their agreed to contributions to NATO…no more missiles launched by N. Korea….ISIS no longer has their calafate.  More people are working in America than any time in our history.   More job openings than people to fill them. High school dropouts have their highest rate of employment in thirty years. The economy is soaring. Huge majority agree these invading caravans must be stopped.  Variable leans Republican.

The variable of likeability.  Despite his many accomplishments, President Trump is hated by many due to his unorthodox style.  Outragious, exaggerates, abrasive, thin skinned and simply un Presidential turn off for many better educated voters. Especially women.  Set aside how well the Country is doing, if you don’t like him personally it hurts at the polls.  Far too many vote on personality than missions accomplished.  Main issues battling out is health care for the Dem.’s and immigration a close second.  Leans Democrat strongly.

A word about cable news ratings. Fox News number one for 202 consecutive months.   Get this…in October Sean Hannity averages 3.5 million viewers.  MSNBC has 1.5 million and CNN gets beaten by Nickelodeon with their 930,00 viewers opposite Hannity.   Their whole prime time is staggering.  Tucker Carlson over 3 million and the same for Laura Ingraham.  Fox news beats them both combined. Even The Five has 2.4 million regular viewers.  Unknown variable.

jacksjargon has always felt most people want to listen or watch only programs that reinforce what they already believe.  Not me.  No one side is always right. For years I woke up to Morning Joe and (now his fiancé) Mika Brzezinski.  It was all politics.  Liberal yes, but at times some balance came from Joe.  A former Republican Congressman from Florida.  They loved having Trump on. Helped their ratings.  But now…it is a garbage cess pool of concocted daily nonsense.  At times Scarborough seems to have lost his senses.  For what its worth, if you ever see Wolf Blitzer on CNN,  doesn’t he remind you of a retired U-Boat captain.

What does it all mean?  Note the variables for yourself.  It is convoluted.  Trying to put it together is not easy. The House of Representatives finds 37 Republicans retiring.  18 Democrat’s retiring.  Incumbants always have a big edge. This one goes  strong edge to the Democrat’s.  Likely they will win the House back.  But not by nearly as much as they thought previously. Good guess is 10 more Dem.’s than Repub’s.  The Senate is much different.  26 Democrat seats are open versus 9 Republicans.  On election night watch the early returns in Indiana. Dem. Donnelly expected to lose.  Also, can Rick Scott beat a truly inconsequential Senator Bill Nelson who has been in hiding for 24 years.  And if West Virginia’s Democrat Joe Manchin falls that is huge…but, not likely.  The key is in the west. Nevada Republican Dean Heller has a 2% lead over Jacky Rosen.  And Arizona is a toss up to replace another Republican.   Military Veteran Martha McSally versus Democrat Krysten Sinema.   Liberal as they come. When asked in an interview by liberal Ernest Hancock if it would be OK for him to fight with the Taliban Sinima  answered “Fine, I don’t care if you want to do that.”  If Arizona votes this radical in instead of the 1st Woman combat fighter pilot Martha McSally, it’s madness.  But, sometimes ignorance is bliss.

Should the Democrats win both the west Senate seats and retain all their other Senate seats, they would win the Senate. It simply is not going to happen. Too many are way behind in the Real Clear Politics average. If Republicans retain both AZ and Nevada, they could pick up five Senate seats.  Two to three is more likely.  Overwhelmingly there will be divided government with Democrats running wild with Trump investigations including impeachment.

Final Thought: Nancy Pelosi is “Whistling past the graveyard” if she thinks she will be reelected as Speaker of the House. Dem’s want someone more radical and Pelosi has led them to loss after loss.  And when  the public gets a look at the Democrat’s fumbling around as new committee heads investigating Trump for everything including impeachment, this virtually assures Trump reelection in 2020. It helped President Bill Clinton immensely.  Getting 66 Senate votes to oust Trump…forgetaboutit. Likely reelection not even close.   Or as the President like to say…”We’ll have to see.”