According to a poll just out, Donald Trump is in a virtual tie with Hillary Clinton if the election were held today.  This according to the highly respected Rasmussen people.  Clinton 37%…Trump 36%.  Of Democrat’s, 79% back Hillary.  Of Republican’s 63% back Trump.  But, here’s the kicker. Independents side with Trump 36% to Hillary’s 25%.  That’s Trump’s main hope should he get the nomination.  He mainly draws from White blue collar males.  Will this be enough?  Still doubtful.  The key is if he can win the critical swing States which no poll can give any indication.  Ohio is a must…Florida…Colorado…Nevada…Virginia among the critical States. Next GOP debate January 24th on the Fox Business Network.  Look out…here comes Megyn Kelly again.

Editor in chief of The Weekly Standard, William Krystal says  “If Trump loses in Iowa, his mystique is gone.”   At present Ted Cruz holds a 3-5% lead over Trump.  And look out in New Hampshire where Chris Christie is coming on strong.  He’s gone from 3% to 12%.  He’s getting strong backing from “money people” and endorsements from the States main newspaper The Union Ledger.  Trump still leads there by 14%.  But, nobody can ever predict the people of New Hampshire.  Ohio’s Governor John Kasich has spent more time in New Hampshire than any other candidate.  Krystal believes one of these three will emerge here.  Christie, Kasich or Rubio. What’s Trump’s immediate response to Christie being the “hottest candidate emerging” in New Hampshire?   The usual.  Christie was too friendly with Obama during hurricane Sandy that devastated New Jersey while the Governor was pleading his case for relief funds. Also, the “Bridgegate” issue resurfaces.  Doesn’t matter.  Christie is superbly capable of communicating with regular people offering solutions as well as emotional ties.  Trump can’t do that.   If this writer had to select one candidate to take on and beat Hillary, it would be Chris Christie.  A polar opposite of Obama.

So how’s Hillary Clinton doing these days?  Not that well.  She is getting solidly beaten by Sen. Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire and is being forced to call upon her husband to begin campaigning for her.  Problem is Donald Trump is beginning and will rip to shreds Bill Clinton’s horrendous record of unfaithfulness and mistreatment of women.  Thus,  Hillary’s “I’m a woman candidate” appeal will be lessened.  Especially if it is made known she is the one who handled the smear campaign against multiple women her husband was seducing or worse.  Let’s not forget Bill Clinton lied to the feds….lied to a grand jury….lied to the American people on television…lost his law license and was impeached in the House of Representatives.  As an ordinary citizen he would likely have faced jail time.   Martha Stewart did less and served time.

Almost unthinkable six months ago, Hillary Clinton is having a  bumpy ride to glory and it likely will get worse.  Here’s why.  Two main problem area’s.  First she has to back many Obama policy’s.  Obamacare, closing GITMO, the miserable campaign against ISIS that she helped create as Secretary of State.   The best known NBC reporter Richard Engel, who has lived his life for years in the turmoil of the middle east and foreign countries, was asked this question on camera.  “Can you name one country that we now have better relations with after Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State?”   He hedged for a moment (remember NBC is a strongly liberal network) and then answered plainly “No.”      The second area may very well be her total downfall.  Another major batch of her emails are to be released.  So far 900 were classified.  Two were blatant in discussing the North Korean nuclear program.  The FBI has her server that she said she deleted only her personal emails.  They have found a way to retrieve many many of the deleted emails.  This is and has taken much time.  The case against her is mounting.  Through credible sources they have enough for an indictment right now.  However, before any charges are brought to the surface, the agency needs to have virtually an “air tight” case.?   Why? Because the relatively new Attorney General selected by Obama, Loretta Lynch, would be the one who would have to take the case in the Justice Department for any prosecution.  The last thing she would want to do.   FBI Director James Comey is one well respected man and not beholden to anyone…including Obama.   If Comey can present irrefutable evidence to the Attorney General, it would be a fire storm if she turns it away for no follow through.  Even if she does, the massive publicity against Hillary would be enormous.

Now can you see why Vice President Biden is keeping his powder dry?   We are in a point in our Country when there has never been such political turmoil within both political parties.   And, at one of the most critical times in U.S. history. While it’s true Democrat’s will always vote Democrat and like wise for Republican’s, there is a massive amount of anger from those in the middle like never before.  Obama has been exposed for what he is.  From these people in the middle, many are no nothings or semi no nothings, even they know matters are not going well.

Our Country needs a lift in spirit.  “Hope and Change” was an Obama fallacy.  Unlike McCain and Romney, we needed a gut street fighter in the mold of Trump who has proven to be an ideal “pace horse.”   Now as the “pace horse” likely will slow down in Iowa and/or New Hampshire it is my hope and belief a true American President will come forward and properly handle the absolute mess he is going to receive.   And, we shall return to the American spirit we all knew and believed in our Country’s decency and leadership the world knew and needs.

Eleven months and counting.    Stay with www.jacksjargon for the latest updates on the current scene.

Brand new nationwide Fox poll finds Hillary Clinton would slaughter Donald Trump in a general election.  Findings are Hillary 49%…Trump…38%.   Who is the one person who would beat her?  Marco Rubio….Rubio 45%…Hillary…43%.   Impressive in that many don’t know who Rubio is as yet.  Trump has hogged all the air waves endlessly.  Hillary is in virtual hiding with a debate Dec. 19th, 2015.  This is a Saturday night when less people are watching than any other day. It’s on CNN.  It’s a way any mistakes are avoided and her competition gets no recognition.  In short, the Democrat Party is keeping her safe.  As from earlier posts, these Trump fanatics have no idea Trump would lose.  They don’t realize, regardless of what Trump says, he will get zilch Hispanic votes….about the same in women votes….about the same In Afro-American, Asian, Muslim and most any other minority group. Maybe with the possible exception of the John Birch society, if any of them are still around…same for the Ku Klux Klan.

Others mentioned in the poll…Cruz and Hillary are tied at 45% each….and Hillary 46%…Dr. Ben Carson 44%.  And Carson is virtually now dead in the water so to speak.  Interesting right now is the war having shown Cruz lied about being against the Immigration bill as he claimed during the last GOP debate.  He offered an amendment to the bill.  Now claiming he did it to kill the bill.  Nonsense.  He is shown on tape in television interviews saying he was for the bill.

The GOP must find a way to stop Trump.   In spite of his largely male blue collar anything he says goes followers.  At present, Cruz, because of the huge Evangelical Iowa Caucus voters, might beat Trump in Iowa.  Polls show Trump way ahead in New Hampshire.  But, voters there have a history of suprises.  Voters are free to vote either Party in New Hampshire.  Christie and Kasich have worked there very hard.  Especially Christie.  Should it be close in New Hampshire amongst the aforementioned, Trump could lose steam.  And, most importantly, big losers there will be dropping out of the race with their backers free to vote for others.   Trump is not likely to gain from this possibility.  GOP Presidential contenders should take heed of what Daniel Walker did, seemingly ages ago, and drop out soon so the field will be narrowed and building up the contenders remaining.   This is a key to stopping Trumps death march.

If the GOP can keep Trump from getting the delegates needed for the nomination, there is still a decent chance he could be stopped at the national convention.  Anybody with knowledge of what is happening should hope so.   Hillary would be an more of the same Obama Presidency and the end of the USA as we once knew it to be.  Massive tax hikes, give away programs even for illegals and who knows about fighting Radical Islamic terrorist’s that she still refuses to call them.

Hope springs eternal.  Twelve more months and counting.

The winner of the December 15 debate for the nine Republican candidates is nobody.  That’s my thought and the thought of most pundits who watched the entire debate.  Although, on my Facebook page, the Washington Post has some different comments.  Rubio sparred with Cruz.  Bush sparred with Trump.  The one that did the most good for himself was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.  After listening to Rubio/Cruz battle for who voted for what in the U.S. Senate, Christie replied “The people don’t have any idea of what the hell you guys are talking about and don’t care.”   And, then he went on to speak of himself as a prosecutor and working with now FBI Director James Comey during 9/11.  Quite effective.  He could handle Hillary.

Here’s a run down briefly of all nine from last night.   Trump….same old same old.  When confronted by Rand Paul that it was against the Geneva Convention to “Take Out” family members of known terrorist’s, said Trump “it’s either they kill us or we kill them.”  Ridiculus.  John Kasich tried hard but very little impact…Ben Carson mispronounced the name of a terrorist group and the GOP Chairman and coughed throughout…he’s finished….Carly Fiorina sharp as usual.  Very good on Russian diplomacy with the world and the USA, but going no where towards the Presidency…Jeb Bush had his best debate, but likely too little and too late…Marco Rubio stands out as one bright guy on top of most everything….he or Chris Christie have the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton (Democrat’s fear Rubio the most. Smart and Hispanic)…some think Ted Cruz was terrific.  To me I see him as a pompous preacher that is smart, but not nearly likable enough to beat Hillary.  A rehash version of Barry Goldwater 1964. Too conservative along with his act……Rand Paul had a good night giving his views, but this is not the time for an isolationist.

In the earlier debate of four Presidential Candidates, Lindsey was excellent totally ripping Trump apart on allowing no Muslims in the Country.  Graham has been to the Middle East 35 times and well protected by a Muslim Marine body guard.  Emotionally effective.  It makes me still think how unworkable and expensive Trump’s plan is to ship all illegals back to where they came from.   What’s he going to do?  Have officers go to house door fronts and ask “Any illegals in here?  If so, come out and get on this bus. You’re going back.”  Just plain nuts.  But, most Trump supporters aren’t into details.  They have an emotional attachment to him.

The highlight for Trump last night was his saying there is no way he will leave the Party and run a third Party candidacy.   Amen.  One Democrat pundit said this morning Hillary Clinton would win 49 States if Trump was the candidate.  Trump’s support has much fervor, but not nearly enough largely White male voters.   He simply scares too many.

And, for what it’s worth, CNN did a surprisingly good job handling the December 15th debate.

Down to almost twelve months and counting.

Before commentary, remember there is a Republican debate Tuesday, Dec. 15th on CNN with the first debate at 6:00 PM eastern time followed by the main event at 8:30 Eastern time.

There is no way the Republican Party is going to allow Donald Trump to get the nomination for President.  Why?   Because it will end up with Hillary Clinton as President.  How could this be so many Trump supporters may ask.   To begin with he insulted the Hispanic vote, he insulted John McCain, angering many vet’s, in general women don’t like him (he insulted Fox News star Megyn Kelley and Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina), he made fun of a disabled reporter, immigrants against him, Asian votes, Muslim American votes against him.  He would be the Insulter in Chief.  Says Larry Sabato, Phd. Political head at the University of Virginia, “Trump simply can’t win the swing States of Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Nevada.”   He may even end up losing the U. S. Senate for the GOP.

Polls can be very misleading.  Trumps followers are, in general, white and less informed (less educated) with fervor like for no other candidate.  But, there simply are not enough to win a general election.  And, there are troubling signs for him on the horizon. Latest Iowa caucus poll finds the crass unlikable Ted Cruz with 24%, Trump 19%, Rubio 17%, Carson with 17% (he’s done by destroying himself on foreign policy ignorance) Bush 6% and Paul 4%.   However, Iowa Caucus voters vote more on an emotional level.  New Hampshire primary voters are far more issue oriented.  Cruz is best organized in Iowa and pleases the large Evangelical voters.  National polls are meaningless because they vary much depending upon Iowa and New Hampshire results.  And, Trump does have a solid lead, at present, in New Hampshire.  As of a new poll just out, and there is a massive bombardment of polls to sift through, Trump went up 6% to 32%, Rubio next with 14%, up 5% and Chris Christie has now been coming on strong in third with 9% up 4%.  Christie is wowing New Hampshire town hall sessions.   One minute he has them tearful with the death bed wishes of his mother and 9/11 stories.  “I live with those widows and orphans, emotion rising in his throat, I’ve looked into their eyes.” And then has them laughing by saying “I would have a golf free Presidency.”  He also received the powerful endorsement from New Hampshire’s leading newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader.  Christie is second in another poll.

What would shut down Trump getting the nomination? Democrat, Hillary backer, Doug Schoen, Bill Clinton’s poll taker, “The GOP will not let Trump get the nomination.”  Pat Caddell, Democrat poll taker and speech writer for Jimmy Carter agrees.  How to do it?  A number of ways.  GOP leaders meeting this week discussed a brokered convention. Very possible Trump won’t have enough of the needed 1,236 delegates needed.  Iowa, New Hampshire, Sou. Carolina and Nevada would give him only 133 delegates.  Assuming he gets 35% of the delegates on Super Tuesday, that would put him with 350 delegates with a long long way to go. Plus when voting begins, Trump will not dominate the news cycle.  A brokered convention has not been done in decades.  There would be a first vote of all States.  If nobody wins on the first ballot, then horse trading begins and there could be multiple ballots.

However, a brokered convention is getting ahead of other legit possibilities.  Trump’s main benefit right now is split opposition.  Dropouts will be forthcoming.  Santorum will go as Graham, plus Fiorina, Kasich, Carson and even Bush add up to 25%  And, those delegates freed up are doubtful they’ll go to Trump.  The key would be they go to just two other candidates and that changes everything.  Says Larry Sabato, two thirds of Republican primary voters are undecided or for somebody else.  Other more devious methods to stop Trump….reinstate the loyalty oath on a third Party candidacy, rules changes by the Party head Reince Pribus could make a difference.  Or a dead lock and someone such as Mitt Romney comes to the fore front.

Then comes the issue Trump would threaten.  He forms a third Party and runs as an Independent.  Not likely at all.  Why?  Because Trump would lose big time in a general election. Trump knows that.  And with his arrogance and ego, nobody sees Trump allowing himself to be a loser.  And, down deep, if he’s true blue Republican, he wouldn’t want Hillary as Pres.

A final note on Obama.  He is now calling San Bernardino gun violence terrorism. At present he’s planning no visit.  MSNBC’s Morning Joe Scarborough, former Congressman, is absolutely beside himself, along with a table of liberals in trying to understand why the President refuses to act against Radical Islamic Terrorism.  Never will call it what it is…the Sunday night speech awful with nothing new and even his Defense Secretary and Head of the Joints Chiefs are contradicting Obama.   No, ISIS has not and is not being contained.  Instead he changes the subject to new gun laws.  It is this journalists opinion Obama in some way is in debt to Islam with ties to Iran.  Either it’s the faith he practiced and was raised in….possibly his money source for his education (he stills hides all his records including his passport, refuses to show any of his records of grades, papers, articles written at Harvard and post college…..and never will show any student loans he said he had to pay back.   The answer is in his upbringing with numerous mentors of extreme leftist/Marxist views instilling in him the belief that America is not exceptional, “the man” has kept people down (his people) and as his Pastor over twenty years has said, with regard to terrorism, “The chickens have come home to roost.”

Twelve more months and counting.

After the disaster in San Bernadino, (Is there really any doubt what caused it) Paris, Lebanon, Boston and elsewhere, one would think the USA would be leading the fight forming a coalition to attack the ISIS caliphate.  No, instead our Commander in Chief is telling the world….”What better rebuke to terrorism than showing them how we meet together for the climate change conference.”    Oh sure, that will really scare the hell out of them.  Obama’s attempt to change the subject rather than do what he should be doing.  With climate change, he doesn’t have to do anything but talk.  His specialty.  Radical Islam would force him to actually do something.  No way.  He’ll never even call it what it is because he was raised  with Islam.

So now what? America has to sweat out thirteen more months before getting a new President.  Good grief. A lot can happen before then.   Obama says if we wipe out ISIS “They, will only pop up again.”  Says ex Congressman Joe Scarborough, “There is nuclear material now on the black market.”  Iran will have the bomb soon.  Sell it to radical Islam?  Why not?  If they don’t use it first on Israel.

Here’s the nightmare scenario sought by Jihad and fellow terrorists.  It is their wish to blow up an American city.  Kill at least 100,000+.  Following that they then will announce they will continue to blow up our cities until the USA succumbs to their wishes.  Unthinkable?  No, this is one way to establish their radical Islam.  No telling how far off that possibility comes to pass.  The Brit’s are now joining the fight with the French.  Obama’s excuse to not blow up the ISIS oil wells, that helps fund them, it will cause terrible harm to the environment.  Is this nuts or what?  Excuse after excuse not to do what must be done.  American’s, the Pentagon and many in Congress are chomping on the bit to take decisive action.  But Obama won’t budge because of his core belief’s.  Climate change is a mere excuse.

Where does America go from here?  Several possibilities.  The British and France can do enough damage to  hold them off for a year until we get a true American President. Decent chance other Countries will join in.  Germany is now starting surveillance planes. Russia MIGHT help with air raids, but they’re more interested in keeping Assad in power in Syria.  Obama, facing growing pressure may fully arm the Kurds as promised long ago.  They are true warriors. Also, it will only take one catastrophic huge loss of life disaster from ISIS to rally more countries.  Hopefully not here.  It’s far more likely in Western Europe. Politicians do not like to take strong measures until forced to do so.   Only a major major disaster will find many others rallying to the cause.  That’s a sorry state of affairs, but sooner or later the world faces the unthinkable.

A final note.  The Paris conference on global warming found no binding commitment to do anything.  Just talk.  Which may be for the best because until China, Russia and India commit to join an American effort, we are wasting our money on the issue.  Plus, you may find this hard to swallow, there is NO CONCLUSIVE PROOF by science that man is the cause of global warming.  The scientific jury is still out.  The USA could spend billions on this issue without any progress until other Countries are “all in” and there is no proof as yet.   Obama?   Oh, he’ll spend and spend. He simply is deliberately out of his league.  Core beliefs are everything to him. Including his campaign year, Obama has pulled off one of the biggest eight year cons in USA history.  Yet still, Millions upon millions still love and support him.

It has been said, “The greatest argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter.”  Winston Churchill.   Spot on.  Stay tuned for the latest updates on Trump and the state of the Republican field in the primaries.   Coming soon on www.jacksjargon.com