Before commentary, remember there is a Republican debate Tuesday, Dec. 15th on CNN with the first debate at 6:00 PM eastern time followed by the main event at 8:30 Eastern time.
There is no way the Republican Party is going to allow Donald Trump to get the nomination for President. Why? Because it will end up with Hillary Clinton as President. How could this be so many Trump supporters may ask. To begin with he insulted the Hispanic vote, he insulted John McCain, angering many vet’s, in general women don’t like him (he insulted Fox News star Megyn Kelley and Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina), he made fun of a disabled reporter, immigrants against him, Asian votes, Muslim American votes against him. He would be the Insulter in Chief. Says Larry Sabato, Phd. Political head at the University of Virginia, “Trump simply can’t win the swing States of Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Nevada.” He may even end up losing the U. S. Senate for the GOP.
Polls can be very misleading. Trumps followers are, in general, white and less informed (less educated) with fervor like for no other candidate. But, there simply are not enough to win a general election. And, there are troubling signs for him on the horizon. Latest Iowa caucus poll finds the crass unlikable Ted Cruz with 24%, Trump 19%, Rubio 17%, Carson with 17% (he’s done by destroying himself on foreign policy ignorance) Bush 6% and Paul 4%. However, Iowa Caucus voters vote more on an emotional level. New Hampshire primary voters are far more issue oriented. Cruz is best organized in Iowa and pleases the large Evangelical voters. National polls are meaningless because they vary much depending upon Iowa and New Hampshire results. And, Trump does have a solid lead, at present, in New Hampshire. As of a new poll just out, and there is a massive bombardment of polls to sift through, Trump went up 6% to 32%, Rubio next with 14%, up 5% and Chris Christie has now been coming on strong in third with 9% up 4%. Christie is wowing New Hampshire town hall sessions. One minute he has them tearful with the death bed wishes of his mother and 9/11 stories. “I live with those widows and orphans, emotion rising in his throat, I’ve looked into their eyes.” And then has them laughing by saying “I would have a golf free Presidency.” He also received the powerful endorsement from New Hampshire’s leading newspaper, the Manchester Union Leader. Christie is second in another poll.
What would shut down Trump getting the nomination? Democrat, Hillary backer, Doug Schoen, Bill Clinton’s poll taker, “The GOP will not let Trump get the nomination.” Pat Caddell, Democrat poll taker and speech writer for Jimmy Carter agrees. How to do it? A number of ways. GOP leaders meeting this week discussed a brokered convention. Very possible Trump won’t have enough of the needed 1,236 delegates needed. Iowa, New Hampshire, Sou. Carolina and Nevada would give him only 133 delegates. Assuming he gets 35% of the delegates on Super Tuesday, that would put him with 350 delegates with a long long way to go. Plus when voting begins, Trump will not dominate the news cycle. A brokered convention has not been done in decades. There would be a first vote of all States. If nobody wins on the first ballot, then horse trading begins and there could be multiple ballots.
However, a brokered convention is getting ahead of other legit possibilities. Trump’s main benefit right now is split opposition. Dropouts will be forthcoming. Santorum will go as Graham, plus Fiorina, Kasich, Carson and even Bush add up to 25% And, those delegates freed up are doubtful they’ll go to Trump. The key would be they go to just two other candidates and that changes everything. Says Larry Sabato, two thirds of Republican primary voters are undecided or for somebody else. Other more devious methods to stop Trump….reinstate the loyalty oath on a third Party candidacy, rules changes by the Party head Reince Pribus could make a difference. Or a dead lock and someone such as Mitt Romney comes to the fore front.
Then comes the issue Trump would threaten. He forms a third Party and runs as an Independent. Not likely at all. Why? Because Trump would lose big time in a general election. Trump knows that. And with his arrogance and ego, nobody sees Trump allowing himself to be a loser. And, down deep, if he’s true blue Republican, he wouldn’t want Hillary as Pres.
A final note on Obama. He is now calling San Bernardino gun violence terrorism. At present he’s planning no visit. MSNBC’s Morning Joe Scarborough, former Congressman, is absolutely beside himself, along with a table of liberals in trying to understand why the President refuses to act against Radical Islamic Terrorism. Never will call it what it is…the Sunday night speech awful with nothing new and even his Defense Secretary and Head of the Joints Chiefs are contradicting Obama. No, ISIS has not and is not being contained. Instead he changes the subject to new gun laws. It is this journalists opinion Obama in some way is in debt to Islam with ties to Iran. Either it’s the faith he practiced and was raised in….possibly his money source for his education (he stills hides all his records including his passport, refuses to show any of his records of grades, papers, articles written at Harvard and post college…..and never will show any student loans he said he had to pay back. The answer is in his upbringing with numerous mentors of extreme leftist/Marxist views instilling in him the belief that America is not exceptional, “the man” has kept people down (his people) and as his Pastor over twenty years has said, with regard to terrorism, “The chickens have come home to roost.”
Twelve more months and counting.