If anyone wants to tell you who will win the off year elections next Tuesday, what’s that old country expression…”pay them no mind.” Because nobody knows. Jacksjargon will touch on some key variables and give an informed guess. Variables and past mid term election results likely better than polls.
First let’s consider polls and simply say “They ain’t what they used to be.” What poll said Trump would become President. They aren’t to be trusted anymore because of technological change and one specific pertaining to Republicans. It is easy to confirm the hesitancy of people to wear a Make America Great Again cap. Fear of getting accosted. Fear even on the phone to say they are a Trump supporter. They have been bashed so often by this terrible political atmosphere. Also, with one exception (Rasmussen) polls tend to over sample Democrat’s. Throw in trying to poll people with cell phones who are often unreachable and you have the basis of the polling problem. Closet Trump supporters are there. This variable leans Republican. If a race is now called dead even, better chance it goes Republican.
Another variable is Trump campaigning. For one thing he is a helava campaigner. Plus, he never stops. More energy than a four year old. Hillary was a terrible campaigner. Lazy. Unmoving speaker and over confident. Let’s face it. A high percentage of Americans simply didn’t and still don’t like her. So Trump won perhaps due to the combination of the two. Maybe he lucked out against a terrible candidate. However, outrageous as he is, Trump speaks to voters like no President has ever done. He gets through to the average person. A billionaire connecting with charisma to Joe Average. Go figure. Variable leans Republican.
This off year election will find more American’s voting likely than ever before. Most people don’t vote in off year elections. The Presidential elections bring out the semi know nothings and bonefide no nothings. For years one hears this bunch tell you…”I vote for the man (or woman).” It’s always been clear to jacksjargon this immediately tells me they know nothing of the issues. It’s who they like personally. There will be more of them this election. That’s a key variable. Another is hearing about of the “blue wave” of Democrat’s who will throw out the Republican’s as almost always happens in off year elections following a Presidential election. Does a low info voter back Trump? History shows Party out of power wins seats big time. Obama lost 63 House seats. Clinton lost 52. Reagan lost 26. Average loss is 34. Democrat’s need 23 to take control of the House of Representatives. Variable leans heavily Democrat
As for the news media…here is where it gets almost laughable. In case study’s, not polls, 88% of all media stories are negative to Republicans. 93% negative stories on Trump. And yet his ratings keep growing. Up to 47% to 48% in most polls. Even in liberal NBC’s ratings. He is well ahead of Obama at the same point in their Presidency. How can this be? There are only two media outlets for Trump. Rush Limbaugh and Fox News. He is hammered all day by all others. This is a variable that cannot be over looked. Somebody is paying attention to the lowest unemployment ever for Blacks and Hispanics…Americans are more optimistic about the future in decades…wages going up…foreign countries now paying their agreed to contributions to NATO…no more missiles launched by N. Korea….ISIS no longer has their calafate. More people are working in America than any time in our history. More job openings than people to fill them. High school dropouts have their highest rate of employment in thirty years. The economy is soaring. Huge majority agree these invading caravans must be stopped. Variable leans Republican.
The variable of likeability. Despite his many accomplishments, President Trump is hated by many due to his unorthodox style. Outragious, exaggerates, abrasive, thin skinned and simply un Presidential turn off for many better educated voters. Especially women. Set aside how well the Country is doing, if you don’t like him personally it hurts at the polls. Far too many vote on personality than missions accomplished. Main issues battling out is health care for the Dem.’s and immigration a close second. Leans Democrat strongly.
A word about cable news ratings. Fox News number one for 202 consecutive months. Get this…in October Sean Hannity averages 3.5 million viewers. MSNBC has 1.5 million and CNN gets beaten by Nickelodeon with their 930,00 viewers opposite Hannity. Their whole prime time is staggering. Tucker Carlson over 3 million and the same for Laura Ingraham. Fox news beats them both combined. Even The Five has 2.4 million regular viewers. Unknown variable.
jacksjargon has always felt most people want to listen or watch only programs that reinforce what they already believe. Not me. No one side is always right. For years I woke up to Morning Joe and (now his fiancé) Mika Brzezinski. It was all politics. Liberal yes, but at times some balance came from Joe. A former Republican Congressman from Florida. They loved having Trump on. Helped their ratings. But now…it is a garbage cess pool of concocted daily nonsense. At times Scarborough seems to have lost his senses. For what its worth, if you ever see Wolf Blitzer on CNN, doesn’t he remind you of a retired U-Boat captain.
What does it all mean? Note the variables for yourself. It is convoluted. Trying to put it together is not easy. The House of Representatives finds 37 Republicans retiring. 18 Democrat’s retiring. Incumbants always have a big edge. This one goes strong edge to the Democrat’s. Likely they will win the House back. But not by nearly as much as they thought previously. Good guess is 10 more Dem.’s than Repub’s. The Senate is much different. 26 Democrat seats are open versus 9 Republicans. On election night watch the early returns in Indiana. Dem. Donnelly expected to lose. Also, can Rick Scott beat a truly inconsequential Senator Bill Nelson who has been in hiding for 24 years. And if West Virginia’s Democrat Joe Manchin falls that is huge…but, not likely. The key is in the west. Nevada Republican Dean Heller has a 2% lead over Jacky Rosen. And Arizona is a toss up to replace another Republican. Military Veteran Martha McSally versus Democrat Krysten Sinema. Liberal as they come. When asked in an interview by liberal Ernest Hancock if it would be OK for him to fight with the Taliban Sinima answered “Fine, I don’t care if you want to do that.” If Arizona votes this radical in instead of the 1st Woman combat fighter pilot Martha McSally, it’s madness. But, sometimes ignorance is bliss.
Should the Democrats win both the west Senate seats and retain all their other Senate seats, they would win the Senate. It simply is not going to happen. Too many are way behind in the Real Clear Politics average. If Republicans retain both AZ and Nevada, they could pick up five Senate seats. Two to three is more likely. Overwhelmingly there will be divided government with Democrats running wild with Trump investigations including impeachment.
Final Thought: Nancy Pelosi is “Whistling past the graveyard” if she thinks she will be reelected as Speaker of the House. Dem’s want someone more radical and Pelosi has led them to loss after loss. And when the public gets a look at the Democrat’s fumbling around as new committee heads investigating Trump for everything including impeachment, this virtually assures Trump reelection in 2020. It helped President Bill Clinton immensely. Getting 66 Senate votes to oust Trump…forgetaboutit. Likely reelection not even close. Or as the President like to say…”We’ll have to see.”
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