Seven of the last ten contested conventions found the front runner not getting the Presidential nomination. Abraham Lincoln was not nominated until a third ballot. Donald Trump will continue to “huff and puff” about having the most votes and delegates. It won’t do him a bit of good. It looks like GOP Chairman, Reince Priebus has just about had enough from “The Donald.” Or the money people and Party delegates have layed down the law for him. Said Priebus Friday, “The winner of the nomination will have to have 1,237 delegates. Close only comes in horseshoes and hand grenades.” Trite old expression, but it makes it plain. Trump is far from a sure thing.
However, depending on which poll, Trump has about a 6% lead in Indiana. And, much the same in California. Bodes well for him, but California is no winner take all and Indiana does use proportional votes in it’s congressional districts.
Some might say denying Trump the nomination with the most delegates and most votes, although proper, will cause a major chaos. Says long time political pundit/campaign advisor Republican Mary Matalin…..”It doesn’t matter. Chaos will come regardless of what happens at the convention.” And so it goes. Obviously with Priebus statement yesterday, it is very clear the Party will risk it all with regard to Trump’s antics because his nomination will be too costly. Losing the Senate and maybe even the House of Representatives is too big a risk to hand the nomination to a man who will never get enough women votes, Hispanic votes and Black votes to win the Presidency.
As for Hillary and Bernie Sanders, they are virtually tied in Indiana and California. However the big eastern primary wins for her may change the dynamic on those States to follow. Regardless she will get the nomination except for the potential of the FBI report.
As it stands now, it is most likely Trump will never get the needed delegates. Ted Cruz very unlikely any chance at the nomination. Look for a mystery candidate to come forward with nomination. Even Gov. John Kasich still has a chance. Just a chance.
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