On the surface it looked like a two-two tie. Only it wasn’t.  In the Republican four Saturday primaries Donald Trump and Ted Cruz each won two States.  However,  Trump picked up 49 delegates while Cruz was gaining 67 delegates.  Here’s what is most interesting. The margin of the victories.  In winning Kansas, Cruz clobbered Trump 48% to 23% with a record turn out of voters.  In the Cruz win in Maine, it was Cruz 46% to Trump’s 32%. with another huge turn out.  While in Louisiana Trump won with 41% while Cruz finished with 38%.  And, in Kentucky Trump won with 36% while Cruz came in with 31.6%.  A lousy Thursday debate and former GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s attack Trump speech with support from another GOP nominee John McCain seemed to show some Trump vulnerability for the first time. One of these days Trump just might study the issues.

Sen. Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in Nebraska and Kansas while Mrs. Clinton won Louisiana.  It doesn’t mean much except it keep Sander’s continuing with more funds sure to keep on coming.

Marco Rubio was not even close in any of the four Saturday Primaries. For the time being Rubio is “dead in the water.”  Making matters worse for Rubio, Cruz is opening ten offices in Florida in order to keep Rubio from winning his must win home State.  Cruz making the effort to gain a two man race.   Ohio Gov. John Kasich has a better chance of winning his home State than Rubio.  Michigan has their primary Tuesday where one poll has Kasich closing in on Trump.  Other polls don’t agree.  if Kasich wins Ohio and is close in Michigan Tuesday, the greater the chances of a brokered convention.

Let’s get a few things out of the way right now.  Some pundits believe the Republican Party will launch a 3rd Party candidate to oppose Trump if he continues his dominance. Forgetaboutit.  “Pie in the Sky” stuff.   Also, liberal journalists and Democrat’s love to keep repeating the Republican Party is so fractured it may collapse.  Nonsense.  Once they decide on a candidate to oppose Hillary (assuming she is not in court…update on this later in this post) ,trust me, the thought of Hillary Clinton becoming the President is an anathema.  Nothing would put the Party back together faster than that horrendous thought.   Only a denial by the Republican Party establishment of the true deserving winner of the primaries would cause a revolt.  A huge revolt and a major walk out by many delegates. Even though the Party, run by the establishment, can change the rules at anytime.  It is very unlikely knowing the consequences.  If there is no clear winner from the primaries, only then might major change occur.  That’s where Kasich or Rubio could reenter the picture.   Should Trump and Cruz battle it out, Trump has the greater upside.  He’s more likely to beat Hillary.  As primaries continue in more northern States such as New York, Michigan and throw in California, Trump is likely to regain his footing.  But, Cruz and a mammoth onslaught of anti Trump commercials in Florida MIGHT make Florida interesting.  However, Trump has a huge lead in the Sunshine State that, at times, seems like his home State.

As for the Hillary Clinton’s email scandal.  Many believe it will amount to nothing. Perhaps her two aides will take the fall.  However, the Justice Dept. granted immunity to the State Dept. staffer. Bryan Pagliano, who set up the home email server for Hillary. Keep this in mind. Pagliano took the 5th amendment originally.  This indicates he knew he had criminal exposure.  So the cloud over Hillary Clinton remains.  And granting immunity to a low level accomplice is the way to working the case up to higher levels. It is strictly guess work as to what will happen in the final disposition of the matter.

And guess what?   More debates coming up.   Monday night on the Fox News channel, Bret Baier hosts a town hall meeting with Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.  Next they debate Wednesday night on CNN.   One more time, yes, the Republican’s will battle it out in a debate Thursday night also on CNN.  The last debate on Fox News drew huge ratings.  Interest in all of this chaotic jockeying is at an all time high.  Turn out for Republican primaries are breaking records.   Democrat’s show little enthusiasm.

Does anyone remember in the film Apocalypse Now with the renegade Colonel (Robert Duvall) leading his helicopter contingency into Viet Nam battle with his hands on hips (besides saying he loved the smell of napalm in the morning) saying, “Some day this war will end…some day this war will end.”  I think of that now as this wacky all time once in a life time Presidential battle continues with more twists and turns to come…..some day this election will end…..some day this election will end.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com or my facebook page for the latest comments in this political season.

Ted Cruz looking good Saturday, but way too early to make sense of it.  At this point Cruz won Kansas and the CPAC conference vote.  But Cruz continues to win Evangelical vote area’s.   CPAC vote…..Cruz 40%…Rubio 30%…Trump 15%…Kasich…8%.  Things are well up in the air on these early votes counts Saturday.  Cruz leads in Maine…Trump early lead in Kentucky.  Cruz won Kansas over Trump 51% to 23.9 for Trump.  Rubio received 15%.   Suddenly Cruz is setting up ten offices in Florida.  Whew!

This triad here reminds me of the old Rush Limbaugh “Operation Chaos.”   Here it is…Cruz is the one that can beat Trump so far.  However, Trump is more electable than Cruz.  And Rubio is the one who most easily beats Hillary Clinton.   Got it?   Way too early to make sense of Saturday results still out.   However, there are now some indications the Republican Party is headed for a brokered convention.  Mere speculation at this point, but a brokered convention would be most influenced by traditional Party delegates.   And, they would want no part of either Cruz or Trump.

How about a compromise including Rubio and Kasich?  “All hell” would break lose if Trump has 1,200 delegates.   Short by 37 delegate votes.  And, he gets the “heave ho.” Speculation running wild with all TV pundits.   But, Saturday is far from over.  At this hour it’s wait and see.

So far, there appears Romney’s speech, Sen. McCain supporting Romney’s speech and a good Cruz debate may make tougher future sledding for Trump.  Rubio’s walking around with a severe cold/flu.  How can all these guys hold up I’ll never know.

Stay with www.jacksjargon for weekend primary updates.

Yes, last nights Republican debate on the Fox News Channel was tedious, vulgar, repetitive, hilarious at times and packed full of exaggerations and lies.  Mostly by Trump who seems to make things up as the debate rolls along.  With the possible exception of John Kasich, the impact of last nights debate is nil.  Having watched all eleven of them, I hope there will be no more.  Although a 12th debate was originally scheduled.  Per normal, the debate centered around Donald Trump and his candidacy.

Trump is endless in his tirades and can recall every slight he hears from other candidates. His face noticeably turns red with anger. Earlier in the day 2012 candidate Mitt Romney made a spectacular critique of Trump.  In part saying Trump had “neither the judgment or temperament to be President.”  His thin skin makes him defend any and everything which led to the vulgarity of all vulgarities in the history of debates anyone has ever known.  On the campaign trail,  Marco Rubio made reference to Trump’s small hands.  Vanity Fair said the same years ago. Rubio went on to say (about small hands) “you know what else that normally means.”  Trump actually showed his hands on stage and said words to the effect that “his member” is by no means small.  MSNBC’s Mike Barnicle said this morning…”Somebody should have asked him to prove it.”  And so it went.  Fox news political pundit Chris Stirewalt called it “an episode of the Jerry Springer show.  A Demolition Derby.”  It was just plain non sensible.  Where were the questions on Trump’s tax returns making news big time last week?   But, otherwise, Fox News hosts Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace are in a league of their own.  They even had tape showing Trump’s contradictions.  Trump’s typical answers were “I changed my mind” or he was being “flexible.” or he misunderstood the question.  CNN’s John King said Trump is simply “hot tempered.”  Romney is spot on.   And yes, Trump University got a D- from the BBB.  Said Ted Cruz on Trump having a class action lawsuit against him “We are going to have a Spring, Summer and Fall of a candidate defending himself in court.”

Here’s political host, Mark Halperin’s,  grades on last night’s debate based upon their performance and if they helped them selves: Kasich B+,  B’s for both Cruz and Trump and B- for Rubio.  There’s not much else worth saying about the debate.  Perhaps it is worth noting again that Gov. of Ohio John Kasich beats Hillary Clinton in polls for months by as much as 10%.  Rubio is next by 6%…Cruz by 1% and much to Trump’s arguing he is, at best, tied with her.  In the end after two hours of mostly blabber against one another, Kasich the exception, they all, (including Trump) agreed to support the Republican nominee against Clinton. This assumes she is not in court defending herself that is becoming more of a real possibility.  The man who set up her email server in Hillary’s home, John Pagliano, has been granted immunity in order to testify in the email scandal.  Of note, this immunity comes from the Justice Department showing some surprising independence by Attorney General Loretta Lynch.  This is notable.

So where do we go from here?   Well, this weekend we have five more State primaries with proportional assignment of delegates.  They are Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine and a Nebraska caucus.  Next Tuesday it is Michigan as well.  Now comes nine more days for Rubio to win his home State of Florida where he is far behind Trump.  And Kasich to win Ohio. That is a lot more likely.  If they both win their home States of winner take all delegates, then it is overwhelmingly plausible there will be a brokered Republican convention where Trump should meet his “Waterloo.”  Odds are Kasich would get the compromise nomination…with Romney and Rubio waiting in the wings.   It has even been suggested, after Romney’s superior speech performance, he should enter the race now to further spread the delegate totals by winning some western States thought to be leaning towards Trump.  Too far fetched?  Yes, but in this screwiest of all time race for the White House anything is possible.  Like VP Joe Biden our next President?   Who knows?

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for political updates.  Waiting on Saturday and next Tuesday results.

2012 candidate Mitt Romney destroyed Donald Trump in a blistering twenty minute speech in Utah Thursday.  This coming mere hours before the critical Republican debate now down to four candidates.

Said Romney of Trump…”He didn’t build his business.  He inherited it.” “Whatever happened to Trump Airlines?”  “How about Trump University…then there’s the Trump magazine…Trump vodka….Trump Steaks…Trump Mortgage…a business genius he is not.”  “He has neither the judgment nor the temperament to be President.”  His personal qualities…the bullying…the showing off…the absurd third grade theatrics.”

Romney spoke in a valiant attempt for the Republican Party to prevent Trump from getting the nomination.  Everything is riding on the next ten days of primaries. Trump seems overwhelming in wins in the early States,  But he has only one fourth of the delegates he needs to get to the needed 1,237 for the nomination.  The traditional Republican Party thinking better late than never to stop Trump who many feel will not only lose the Presidency, but the Senate as well.  Trump followed Romney’s speech with usual non Presidential often heard standard lines.  Even throwing in a vulgarity to Romney.  It went on and on, but had an unusual stoppage by protesters 3-4 times. “Get’em out of here” said Trump ignoring his wife plea’s to act more Presidential.   That’s a lost cause on a man who simply can’t control his emotions.

Exit polling shows Trump’s main appeal is to the poorly educated angry blue collar voters.  College educated show little interest in voting for “The Donald.”  Romney’s speech today will do little to stop Trump supporters who are hard core.   However, it could very well stimulate reluctant Republican voters to get out and support a different nominee.   Those remaining are John Kasich, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

Said Kasich today….”If I win Ohio (he’s is a very successful Governor of that State), he’s (Trump) not going to be the nominee.  We’re going to the convention and I am going to get the nomination.”

And, Kasich might just have something there in that remark.  He’s moderate, has a successful balanced background.  Very good in the private sector…excellent in Congress helping to balance the nation’s budget on the Finance Committee. Even did some TV work on occasion subbing for Bill O’Reilly.  Of the four remaining candidates, Kasich is far and away the most qualified to be President of the United States.  Will it happen? Perhaps, when the convention in Cleveland becomes a “horse trading bedlam” Kasich could be the best compromise candidate.

However, until Trump stumbles in the next ten days, it just is not going to happen. But, wouldn’t be ironic if it does go to the convention and there is no agreement on any of current candidates?   Guess who might step up?    Why Mitt Romney of course.

Look for debate comments coming in the next www.jacks jargon.com

No, it is not over for the Republican nominee for President.  Yes, it is over for socialist Bernie Sanders.

Super Tuesday proved to be an impressive win for Donald Trump.  He won seven States while Cruz won three and Rubio won one.   Five States won by Trump are southern States.  But, keep this in mind.  It is not how many States you win.  It is how many delegates you win heading for the clinching total of 1,237.  That’s the big deal.  Last night Trump won 210 for 316 total delegates.   Cruz won 171 for a total of 226.  Rubio won 17 for a total of 106.  Kasich won no States for a total now of 25.

While Joe Scarborough on his morning show is spouting off how Trump has it “in the bag” so to speak, two of the sharpest minds in politics, Democrat’s Mark Halperin and John Heilemann still believe there is a CHANCE it is not over yet.  The hosts of With All Due Respect agree not one candidate will beat Trump for the nomination out right.  However, they do see a three way battle of Cruz, Rubio and Kasich dividing up enough delegates to keep Trump from a direct win.

Here’s their thinking.  Says Halperin, “There are some indications from the results last night that he (Trump) was not as strong as he would be last night.”  He sights the possibility of Ohio Gov. John Kasich winning his winner take all home State.  Ted Cruz was thought to be winning Texas by 7-9%.  He slaughtered Trump by 17% and took Oklahoma as well. In Virginia, polling showed Trump with over a 20% lead.  He only beat Rubio by 2-3%.   Kasich’s total kept Rubio from the out right win.  In most States, late deciders overwhelmingly showed Cruz, Rubio and Kasich tied with Rubio easily gaining the most late deciders.  Especially in Virginia indicating Rubio’s bashing of Trump likely did help him.  Says John Heilemann, “The question is now, can the Party keep Trump from getting the needed 1,237 delegates needed?”  “It’s not about how many States you win.”

Saturday there is a handful of States with proportionate primaries.  Kentucky, Louisiana, Kansas and Maine.  Next Tuesday is Michigan also  proportional. Then comes  March 15th with the winner take all primary huge in Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina.  After March 15th much will finally be known.  Rubio must win his home State of Florida.  A State where he is supposed to be behind by 20%.  Trump has huge business holdings in Florida.  But, lately, Rubio is showing definite momentum. The Republican Party will throw everything they have for Rubio in Florida.  Rubio’s a scrapper and could pull it off.

Not much to add on Hillary Clinton versus Sen. Bernie Sanders.  She won seven to Bernie winning four.  But the delegate count is 1,001 to 371 in her favor.  It’s over except for the FBI report endlessly still awaiting.

Of interest, in all voting, Republican votes are up 25% while Democrat voting is down 25%.  Lines and running out of ballots for Republican’s.   Democrat’s ho hum.

Don’t forget the Thursday debate on Fox News Channel with Megyn Kelly (will she question Trump again?) Chris Wallace and Bret Baier.  If it’s anything like the last debate, this could be a slugfest.

Stay with www.jacksjargon for the up to date news and summaries of this wacky political season.  Also on my Facebook page.

Yes, now we have Trump dodging and weaving about his non answer when confronted by Jake Tapper of CNN about Trump getting endorsed by famed Ku Klux Klan member David Duke.   Trump claimed he didn’t know of Duke, factually disproven, and then on Monday’s Today Show claiming he had a faulty ear piece and didn’t hear the question properly.  At no time did Trump disclaim or disown the famed KKK leader’s endorsement.

Best guess the reason has two possibilities.  1. He secretly liked the endorsement to help him in the deep south for tomorrow’s Super Tuesday primaries. 2. Or, the onslaught from mainly candidate Marco Rubio, with the help of candidate Ted Cruz, is getting to him.  Or a combination of both.  It is very likely Cruz will beat Trump in Texas on Tuesday.  Perhaps even by a clear margin saving Cruz in his home State and also breaking Trump’s strangle hold on all primaries.  Arkansas is also in play.  50-50 chances at present.

After thinking too long that Trump will burn out, Rubio has released a torrent of attack lines that have been hilarious at times.  Mainly that Trump is a “con artist.”  A “world class “con artist.”  Sighting Trump’s failures with the major lawsuits pending from Trump’s phony real estate college that never was licensed and charged as much as $36,000 per student.  Trump used illegal immigrants often on construction sights….his failed Trump Airlines attempt….filed four corporate bankruptcy’s….says Rubio, “who loses money on casino’s”.  Trump failure to release previous years tax returns now leading to all kinds of while speculation such as Trump may have contributed to Mafia controlled unions to get work done on numerous construction projects.  Or contributions to all sorts of non Republican issues..   Rubio’s onslaught is never ending.  “Trump should fire his phony painted orange face provider.”  Or the salty one about Trump having very small hands.  “And you know what they say about men who have small hands.”  Rubio says he is getting calls and emails from a multitude of disgruntled workers and contractors who never were paid because of the bankruptcy filings.

Will finally standing up to a bully work?  Not likely in the short run. It takes time for the no nothings and semi no nothings to get through to.  But, in the longer run it has a decent chance to catch on.   It will either destroy Rubio or help him.  More likely the latter because Trump has risen to the top based largely upon insults to his opponents and very generalized policy proposals.  He’s been a bully now getting it thrown back and with his thin skin, he may be having a tough time dealing with so many attacks and attack lines.    The tax return refusal is gaining momentum.  Rubio’s crowds growing by the day.

As for Super Tuesday, March 1st, keep in mind the delegates will be doled out proportionally.  If a candidate secures at least 20% of the primary vote in one State, he then is awarded delegates. Texas has 155 delegates and Georgia is next with 76. A little less than 600 delegates are up for grabs. It is not until March 15th when the winner take all primaries begin.  Such as Florida, Ohio Illinois and North Carolina.  The big ones.  That’s close to finality time.

As an indication of Trump’s vulnerabilities, he is now threatening to withdraw from his signed agreement to not leave the GOP for a third Party because, as he claims, he is not being treated fairly.  A sure sign matters are getting to him.   This David Duke KKK issue is major along with the tax returns matter.

What is gratifying is Trump is showing signs of significant blunders.  The GOP Party is desperate to take him down because they may lose the Senate majority and all will be for not and not to mention Trump losing the Presidential election.   Rubio, all signs point to, would likely beat Hillary assuming she gets through the FBI scandal.

This is easily turning into the most controversial, most mud slinging and exciting Presidential election in decades.  And, me thinks….”We ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.”  Why? Because Fox News, yes with Megyn Kelly again, is set for Thursday March 3rd on the Fox New Channel.   Who knows?  Maybe Trump will throw a punch as he has threatened to hecklers.

Stayed turned for www.jacksjargon.com or my facebook page for the latest. Especially the meaning of the primary results of Super Tuesday March first.

Donald Trump was exposed as shallow and a hypocrite in a brawl at Thursday nights debate.  Plus, he was shown up in many ways from his lawsuits pending against him by a college he created to his use of undocumented workers for cheap labor and his totally inadequate answer of what he would do to replace Obamacare.

Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz pummeled Trump two against one in the wildest debate of the ten previous ones.  Overwhelming pundits from CNN and Fox News portrayed Marco Rubio as the winner.  The question is why did it take so long for “The Donald” to be exposed.   Rubio attacked Trump like never before recalling Trump brought in Polish workers for cheap labor in building his company.  He claimed Trump inherited 200 million dollars and he brought up Mitt Romney’s recent comments that Trump was stalling on releasing his tax returns.  Trump claimed he could not show his return because he was being audited.  Romney mentioned there may be “a bomb shell” in his returns. Plus, there is no good reason Trump could not release tax returns from previous years.

Ted Cruz took no prisoners either.  It seems likely he will win the primary in his home State of Texas on March 1st known as Super Tuesday.  Twelve States hold primaries on this date.  Texas is likely to slow Trump’s momentum somewhat.  The problem is Trump being exposed now is probably too little and too late.  However, consistently Rubio has won the late deciders votes.   He trails Trump in his home State of Florida. But, that primary comes later.  600+ delegates are up for grabs this Tuesday.  It takes 1,236 to win the nomination.

Rubio threw punch after punch at Trump.  Trump ties sold are made in China…bankrupted 4 companies…health care plan, where is it?  (nothing more than he’ll breakdown States lines for selling insurance)…illegals will build the wall just like they built Trump Towers…he inherited 200 million dollars…Trump to remain neutral in the Israel/Palestinian debate (laughable with 3 year olds learning to kill Jews)…Rubio even nailed Trump repeating himself 5 times in five seconds after Trump tried but failed in that old Rubio debate problem……….but, as the Washington Post reports this morning, the killer against Trump is the debacle of Trump’s University fiasco.  The New York Attorney General is seeking 40 million dollars in restitution for students who were defrauded in what turned out to be nothing more than a series of real estate work shops in hotel ballrooms.   The so called University was never licensed.

What does this two prawned attack at Trump boil down to?   It is a desperate late attempt to stop Trump from getting the nomination.  Why?   Because he is the easiest for Hillary to beat in the general election.  You think last night was rough.  Wait until the Democrat Party unleashes upon him.  Currently, and for months, Rubio beats Hillary in the polls by 6%…Cruz beats her by 1%….”The Donald” loses to her by anywhere from 4%-6%.  Surprisingly, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio beats her by 10%.  Kasich was solid last night.

Should Cruz beat Trump next Tuesday in Texas, it will be up to Rubio to beat Trump in Rubio’s home State of Florida where he is currently behind by as much as 16%.  Last night will help, but he needs much more. Of note, the traditional liberal media is backing Trump because he is so vulnerable to Hillary Clinton.  That’s become obvious.

On a personal note, this blogger never backed Trump.  He always seemed more bluster than substance.  And, if anyone doubted that, last night was the clincher.  He will not be the conservative type leader the USA needs now more than ever. In fact, I believe down deep, Trump is more liberal than conservative.  He gives nary a clue how he is going to do all he says or pay for it any better than Sen. Sanders and Hillary.

There is a chance, although slight because Trump’s followers are bigger on emotion than substance,  (they won’t change because of last night’s Trump debacle) that Rubio and or Cruz can still chip away enough delegates from Trump to lead to a brokered convention.   The “horse trading” that would go on then (all delegates free to vote for whoever they want after a first ballot failure to nominate with the needed 1,236 delegates, leads to odds that Rubio would be the choice.  Overwhelmingly, the Republican Party wants no part of Cruz or Trump.

And what a sight.   Rubio and Cruz shaking hands during commercial breaks and before and after the debate.  Last night helped.  But, still doubtful it was enough. However, they still have to count the votes.  Next Tuesday should help Trump in the twelve mostly southern States.  But no decision in the offing anytime soon.  Same with Hillary Clinton as the FBI has expanded it’s probe to include her chief aide.  Who knows?  If the FBI really zings Hillary with their report, even then Trump might beat her.  Might.

Stay with WWW.jacksjargon.com for the latest political updates

The story of the South Carolina Primary is Donald Trump. Statistics in a moment. He won easily, but consider his circumstances during the last week.  He had a weak debate, he called Ex President W. Bush a liar (The ex Prez still very popular in South Carolina), he got into a verbal battle with the Pope, of all people, he made remarks that taking the Confederate flag down was the right thing to do, he said Planned Parent Hood did good things, he had only five campaign workers in the State, TV vicious attack ads and Cruz’ robo anti Trump calls the finals two days never stopped.  Trump spent roughly 2-3 million on ads versus 20-30 million dollars spent against him and he still won easily by 10%.   And the end all of all end all’s, Trump tweet’s….”Obama would have gone to justice Scalia’s funeral if it was held in a mosque.”  Hilarious.  Vintage Trump.

Trump is not only outrageous, but he is a tireless worker, extremely smart, (faster than fast learner) tells the voters what they want to hear spot on, seldom off message, and is a master at remarks destroying his closest Presidential candidates. Speaks without a TV prompter saying whatever he wants to say.  Pundits on all three news channels agree they have never seen the likes of Donald Trump in politics.  Absolutely confounding.

Here’s the final vote tally from the Republican South Carolina primary…Trump 32.5%, Rubio 22.5% Cruz 22.3% Bush 7.8% Kasich 7.6% and Carson 7.2%.  Jeb Bush has now quit the race leading speculation of who his followers will now support.

The second major story from the primary is the comeback of Marco Rubio.  Here was the scenario going into Saturday’s primary.  Trump had to win big. Cruz had to beat Trump. And, Rubio had to beat Cruz.  Rubio coming off a bad debate performance before the New Hampshire primary finished 5th there with only 11% of the vote.  Now he is seen as the only candidate who has a chance of beating Trump for the nomination.  And, endorsements a plenty are already coming in for him.  The establishment of the Republican Party fears Trump for three main reasons…Trump is the only one of the now three man race that loses to Hillary in polls over many months…he may very well lose the Senate to the Dem.’s and he is not a true Republican and conservative.  Trump calls himself a “common sense conservative.”  The truth is nobody knows what he will do as President.  He probably doesn’t know either. Plus, his biggest fault is he is notoriously thin skinned.  How would that work with Congress?

Here’s the latest poll of the three man race versus Hillary Clinton. Rubio beats her by 5% Cruz by 1% and “The Donald” loses to her by 5%. Trump’s answer to this he will win over huge numbers of “Reagan Democrat’s.”   Maybe yes.  Maybe no.  Plus he says he will win States that Republican’s normally lose such as Michigan and maybe even New York.   New York?   Fat chance.  Some think Gov. Kasich would be the biggest winner versus the woman who 88% of Nevada voters said yesterday they don’t trust.

Meanwhile in the Nevada Democrat caucus, Hillary Clinton 52% Bernie Sanders 47%. She once had a 20%+ lead.  What is most interesting is only 80,000 voted against 120,000 voting four years ago.  GOP voters are turning out in huge numbers.  And, she lost the Hispanic vote to Sanders 53% to 45%. The Democrat Party is in an absolute quandary as to planning a back up strategy with what is likely to be a hugely negative report coming from the FBI.  It’s never mentioned in the liberal media, but it’s hanging out there big time.  Ex New York city mayor Michael Bloomberg may jump in even as an Independent that would be a killer for the Democrat’s.  VP Joe Biden is the most mentioned along with the “usual suspects.”

Now the main subject will be where will supporters of drop out Presidential candidates go.  Jeb Bush’s nearly 8% is figured mostly to go to Rubio.  But, bad blood may hamper it.  Polls indicate Trump is a very poor second choice for voters.  Most think Bush’s 8% is headed  to Rubio and Kasich.  The Republican Party will throw everything they have in support of Marco Rubio.  The Hispanic vote, Trump would likely not receive, his rags to riches story is enormously appealing, he is very well informed on foreign affairs, his youth may be more of a plus than hindrance, he is older than JFK when elected (44 to 43) and he is a very good campaigner.  Cruz is hated by the GOP. Known as a nasty man, pompous, arrogant and self indulgent.  The laugh in the Senate dining room is always who has to sit next to him.

And this said referring to Donald Trump by a Democrat pro…..”When the goin’ gets weird…the weird turns pro.”   Hunter Thompson…controversial iconic journalist.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for the latest political happenings.  Most also posted on my facebook page.

Care to guess which network news is most trusted?  Don’t bother.  Here it is: Fox News 28% CNN 13% CBS 9% NBC 8% ABC 7% MSNBC 5.9% COMEDY CENTRAL 4.8%.  That’s correct.  MSNBC beats Comedy Central by only one per cent.  They’re both equally funny.

Obviously, we are on poll over load for this weeks South Carolina primary.  Here’s the latest as of Thursday morning, 2/18 from Fox News.  Note first figure is now.  To the right is as of last December.  Trump 32% was 35%, Cruz 19% was 14%, Rubio 15% was 14%, Carson 9% was 15%, Bush 9% was 5%, Kasich 6% was 1%.   For all his unworthiness, Cruz is running a good campaign. He now leads Trump amongst very conservative voters by 2%.  Trump had been ahead by 14%. White Evangelicals finds Trump still ahead by 8%.  It had been by 19%. However, veterans have increased their support of Trump by 8% now at 37% while Cruz stayed at 22%.  This poll comes after last Saturday’s debate. Besides Evangelicals, veterans are a strong S. Carolina contigent

Of note Marco Rubio has increased his strength in all categories.  He is up 1% in the over all poll. However, he is up 5% in Evangelicals and up 4% with those who call themselves very conservative.  Endorsements seldom mean much in voting.   But, this one might make a difference in South Carolina.   With an 80% popular rating in her State, Gov. Nicki Haley, Senator Tim Scott and well known Congressman Trey Gouty have all now endorsed Rubio.

Those losing soundly in the South Carolina primary may begin dropping out.  Jeb Bush is not expected to do well even with his mother and brother, W. Bush campaigning for him.  Same for Dr. Carson.  Kasich is more questionable.  Campaign funds might decide the issue with Carson and Kasich.  And, Bush may finally realize there is no hope if he cannot perform well in the State where President Geo. W. Bush remains very popular.  Those three make a total possibly of 24% of the vote.  Trump is not a likely second choice for most.  He’s pretty well topped out.  It boils down to a strong possibility Rubio will gain the majority of the drop outs support. Especially after those major endorsements.  True, significant conjecture here.  But, quite possible.  Majority of that 24% would make a huge difference moving on from South Carolina.  Throughout this long campaign, Rubio has been shown to have the widest lead in beating Hillary.   Trump the least.  Cruz is unelectable.   South Carolina is important, but not critical.   Remember Newt Gingrich won easily there four years ago.  And then poof.

On the Democrat side of matters, Hillary Clinton is in near panic mode in possibly losing this weeks Nevada caucus where she once led by +20%.   It is now a tie with Bernie Sanders.  She should win convincingly in South Carolina as we still await a negative FBI report.  Right now nationally Sanders is polling higher than her.  Even beating some Republican candidates.  But, it won’t last. Still a decent chance of others entering the Presidential race such as ex New York Mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg who likely would be the death knell for Democrat hopes for retaining the White House. Bloomberg would overwhelmingly gain from Democrat voters.

I’ll leave you readers on a “Fearless Fostick” note of another shameful act by  President Obama.   He is about to become the first President in 80 years to not attend the funeral of a Supreme Court justice.  In this case the iconic Antonin Scalia.  Instead he is flying to Cuba for only goodness knows what.  His edict as always…make enemies of your friends and friends with your enemies.   What a guy.  Ten months and counting.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for the latest on the campaign trail and this weeks South Carolina primary.

Stunned.  That’s the feeling when I heard of the death at 79 of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia.  A stalwart of conservative opinions by the Court and a giant of mutual respect from all Parties.  Thirty years on the bench.  Gregarious, fun loving, biting writings upon decisions he opposed and characteristically his best friend of the Court liberal Justice Ruth Ginsburg.  Far and away the most influential Court member.  Catholic with nine children.  Appointed by President Reagan.

Now here comes politics before Scalia’s final respects.  Obama will no doubt do any and everything to get in another liberal on the Court before he leaves office. Can he do it?  Very very unlikely..  Here’s the way it goes.  The President can only nominate a candidate.  Next the Senate has to approve that candidate.  Republican Majority leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, can stop this nomination in two ways.   First, he can and will refuse to hold hearings on Obama’s nominee.  No assignment to a committee.  And, consequently no vote.  Then there is the matter of the President making a recess appointment.  A Justice who would only preside until the end of Obama tenure.  That Justice could be critical in pushing through legislation pending of what Obama wants such as Immigration, an abortion case and The Little Sister’s of the Poor issue.  To stop a recess appointment, McConnell would have to keep the Senate in Pro Forma Session keeping Obama from such a recess appointment when the Senate is out of session.  This can be done.  Might, MIGHT be a bit challenging.  Best guess, McConnell will find a way with his Senate majority of Republican’s.

With only eight members left on the Court, 4-4 ties would be likely mean all cases decided by lower courts would stand.  Bye bye Obama’s immigration plan of five million work permits and protection from deportation.  Bye bye the Texas abortion case that will reduce, in Texas, abortion clinics from 40 to 10.  And, put new restrictions and requirements upon abortion clinics.  Plus, the Little Sister’s of the Poor being forced to provide under The Affordable Care Act (affordable…need a laugh today?) to provide contraception methods at their facilities in violation of their religious beliefs.   Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, of all people, put a stay on that action last New Year’s Eve.  Hobby Lobby already received a favorable ruling on the matter.  This issue still needs a final resolution.  Expect a major battle on all the aforementioned issue’s coming at the worst time.   A further dividing matter during a Presidential election year. What next?   Liberal Justice Ginsburg (cancer victim)  suddenly retires?   Wouldn’t  that be a doozy?

On to Saturday night’s debate.  The fur really flew. Say’s famed columnist George Will…”Jeb Bush’s best performance.   Trump made a huge mistake going against former President George W. Bush who remains number one in popularity in South Carolina.”  He actually accused W. Bush of lying, knowing ahead of time there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, but still went in anyway.  And, as brother Jeb said last night, “my brother kept us safe” Trump exclaimed 9/11 was on W. Bush’s watch.   What a sham by Trump. What nonsense.  I can’t help think of the old line against Sen. Joe McCarthy….”Have you no shame sir?  No human decency.”  Everybody  with foreign intelligence…the Brit’s….France….Japan all said the same thing.  Sadam had those weapons.   CIA Chief George Tenant told President W. Bush it was “A slam dunk.”  Hillary and a cadre of leading Senate Democrat’s all saw the intelligence and voted for the war.  Plus Colon Powell.

The rest of the debate, according to Newt Gingrich, Marco Rubio was the winner with genial Gov. John Kasich second.  Kasich thought the whole debate flare up’s were a sham.  Typical Kasich.  It is now thought Kasich is doing much better than thought in South Carolina.  Rubio confronted Cruz skillfully with his lie after lie and dirty campaign tactics.  Trump loudly agree.  Those in the know understand nasty Ted Cruz would have no chance in winning the Presidency.  No chance.

Here’s the poll numbers before  last night’s debate for the GOP.   Trump 42% Cruz 20% Rubio 15% Kasich 9% Bush 6% and Dr. Carson 6%.     Hillary Clinton 59% Sanders 40%.  Her with 73% of the Black vote…Sanders with 26%.

So now we wait for the latest post debate polls and the South Carolina primary.  How much, if any, was Trump hurt and did Cruz take any lumps.  My guess?    Yes.

Stay with www.jacksjargon.com for the latest poll numbers coming out and campaign updates. The “Beat goes on….la dee da dee dee ….la dee da dee doe.”