Donald Trump shoots from the lip. Best that can be said. He won big last night in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii losing only to Ted Cruz in very conservative Idaho. It really was no contest. He bounced back from slippage vote counts last Thursday.
Two main issues now confront Trump. Getting more unlikely now, but what is the difference between a “brokered convention” and a “contested election.” And Can Trump win a Presidential election..
A brokered convention occurs is when nobody has the necessary 1,237 delegates to win the nomination out right. Then, mainly Party bosses, go into the proverbial smoked filled rooms and decide after “horse trading” who the nominee shall be. A contested convention is when nobody wins the needed 1,237 and than vote after vote is taken State by State until a Presidential nominee is selected on the floor of the convention.. While the floor votes are going on, there will be delegate battles going on between the States with an attempt, after trades are made for issues like VP choices…Cabinet preferences and even ambassadorships are being passed out….for some States to trade delegate amounts enough to select a winner. It could go on for hours even until the wee small hours or possibly carry over until another day. The Republican’s will not leave the Cleveland July convention without their nominee.
Will Trump win the Presidency? Read on. With Rubio getting big losses again Tuesday night, very very unlikely he will win his home State of Florida where new polls show him behind 15%+. Trump is the likely winner. Gov. John Kasich was tied with Ted Cruz in Michigan showing enough strength to win his home State of Ohio next Tuesday in the winner take all primary. Should Kasich win Ohio and Cruz continues to win enough delegates, then there is a good chance of a CONTESTED convention. It simply does not make sense that GOP Party leaders would be dumb enough to try to broker the convention. Coolers heads likely to prevail.
Will Trump be our next President? Timing is the essence of it all. With planets spinning, so to speak, Trump comes at the right time for him to win. First, voters are showing extreme anger benefitting Trump. They want an outsider. Forget the liberal pundits saying they are angry at the Republicans. They are just a part. Wittingly or not, that anger stems from bad policies or no policy’s from Barack Obama. Obama shows success at virtually nothing except the ability to speak well enough in using the “Bully pulpit” to confuse mostly the uninformed public that it’s not his fault polls show 70% of the public feels our Country is headed in the wrong direction. Trump, again last night, demonstrated his uncanny ability to ramble, speak off the cuff, promote himself (and his other successful products on display) and minable words to promote Party unity. With his rambling dialogue upon his winning night, his products on display such as his water, steaks, wine and magazine, it looked like the Home Shopping Network. “And I sold my airlines in a very very good deal” said Trump even predicting he will win the class action lawsuit against Trump University and reopen it soon. (there…take that Mitt Romney.) The last word is always Trump’s.
It was vintage Trump last night on all the news outlets for forty minutes. He took questions from reporters and took no prisoners in his answers. Arrogant, funny, showmanship, a master salesman captivating audiences and pundits nationwide. He smartly came up with the idea of the rambling dialogue and minor acceptance speech with reporters questions versus the usual celebration trite events. Just plain smart. This is what so many of his partisans want. No rehearsed usual political comments from the likes of a Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.
Is it enough to win? Probably. Why? Because Hillary is atrociously bad as a candidate. She wins in the South due to the high Afro American vote. These are States Republicans typically win. She actually lost the State of Michigan to Sen. Bernie Sanders in one of the all time biggest upsets with all polls showing her winning big time Tuesday night. Her unfavorability’s are even higher than Trumps. “The Donald” has little chance of winning the Hispanic vote and women’s vote. And there is a limited amount of “blue collar” less educated white males to vote for him. HOWEVER, Trump has a very good chance of winning “Reagan Democrat’s” in States such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and some northeast area’s that traditionally go for the Democrat’s. Trump even touts he has a chance of winning New York. Highly doubtful. But, he could surprise in more typically Democrat States.
If Trump was as politically smart, as he truly is in many area’s, he would swallow his thin skinned pride and put Sen. Marco Rubio on his ticket to win back some of the Hispanic support he is sure to lose at present. Or, perhaps a woman or a different Hispanic. Let them go out campaigning speaking Spanish.
And, let’s not forget that Hillary Clinton is no sure lock to win the Democrat nomination. It’s not delegates she will lack, it’s the growing email scandal that the FBI is extremely likely to make public suggesting an indictment even if the Justice Department refuses to pursue the matter. My thinking being the Democrat’s would have a better chance of winning with a different candidate such as Vice President Joe Biden. There are others who might jump in as well such as former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, California’s Gov. Jerry Brown and they could drag out Sec. of State John Kerry or Al gore again.
There are so many variables floating around making it impossible for any pundit or blogger, for that matter, to predict what might happen. Or, what will be the outcome. The Republican Party views Trump and Cruz as a pick between poison or a bullet. With Rubio now out of the picture, there certainly will be a push to somehow, some way nominate a different candidate. If he wins his home State of Ohio, John Kasich anyone? He’s always been this bloggers choice and easily the most qualified and would unite the Party. A can do guy who has proven it. A split in the contested convention between Cruz and Trump supporters might…I said might…just lead to the best answer.
Don’t forget the final, hopefully, Republican debate is Thursdays night on CNN. Unpredictable or predictable show nobody knows. Stay with www.jacksjargon.com or my facebook page for Friday round up from Thursday night.