The trio of Rubio, Kasich and Cruz made Donald Trump look like he was last in line when the school books were passed out in Thursday nights debate. Said CNN’s political expert Michael Smerconish, “It looked like Trump was trying to run out the clock.” Meaning he was OK with just trying to maintain his status quo. He went on to add “if Trump does not go into the convention with the necessary 1,237 needed for the nomination, he won’t come out with it.”
Rubio was outstanding with his depth of knowledge on foreign affairs, non terrorists Muslims, (needed for a coalition to defeat ISIS) Muslims dying in our military defending the USA, Cuba (naturally) and even willing to support no federal legislation with regard to climate change. His reasoning being with no significant knowledge of how much mankind is causing global warming, it is a massive waste of billions of dollars when India, Russia and China have no commitment to curtail their efforts in that area. Good point. The U.S. contribution would be the proverbial “spit in the ocean.” Huge dollars spent better on America’s more urgent needs the implication.
As always, Trump spoke in generalities. Repeating the same lines that make him so popular with the largely less educated and less informed. Again he brought up his standard trade lines of putting a 45% tariff on imports in particular from China. Only this time back tracking somewhat….”I MAY put a 45% tariff on imports IF necessary.” Cruz was ready and pounced pointing out how that tariff would increase prices by 45% on many goods American’s buy. Kasich was vintage Kasich exploiting how well he has done in Ohio using techniques he learned in Congress. Same stuff, but true. He is best qualified to lead our Country if elected.
At this point, I see no reason to believe Donald Trump could beat any Democrat he would oppose in the general election. Here is realistic polling data. Trump’s support has slipped among women from 37% to 24%. He would receive next to nothing in support from Hispanic’s. Why would they support a man who wants to deport so many of them? Afro American’s, as always, a lost cause. Here’s how the GOP candidates would match up versus Hillary Clinton: Rubio beats her 48% to 44%…Cruz beat her barely 47% to 46% and Trump? Hillary 50% to Trump’s 43%. Kasich has always done best against her normally by 10%.
The idea, as Trumps tells us, he is going to win so many cross over votes from traditional Democrat’s simply won’t cut it. He keeps saying, “And I haven’t even started on her.” It never comes up what the Democrat’s are going to do to him. They have tons of material he has, essentially, given them. An excellent Vice President choice seldom moves the needle in Presidential elections. Perhaps one, hopefully, key State.
So what next? The polls in Florida, surprisingly, show Rubio narrowing Trump’s lead. Washington Post poll…36% to 27% for Trump. Suffolk poll…36% to 27% for Trump. It had been as much as Trump by 20%. Rubio certainly gained from his debate performance Thursday night. Enough? Probably not. But, It is very likely Kasich will win his home State of Ohio. With Cruz gaining support, it appears likely Trump will not have the needed delegates to automatically get the nomination.
Next Tuesday, March 15th, is THEE big day when it is winner take all primary day. Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri all in play. Trump normally does not do as well in a closed primary. Closed means only Republican’s can vote for their Party’s candidate and the same for Democrat’s. Notably, Florida is a closed primary. Should Trump win Ohio and Florida he is a lock. Highly unlikely.
As she admitted, Hillary is not a natural politician. As bad as she is, her lead in Florida again is huge. Just as it was in Michigan when Sen. Bernie Sanders pulled the mammoth upset. Bernie is causing Democrat’s to scramble just in case. Hillary now knows she is not a lock with all that is facing her.
Dr. Ben Carson gives his endorsement to Donald Trump today. Likely assured ahead of time a Cabinet post such as head of Health and Human Services. Not a bad choice. Endorsement means little at this point in swaying any votes.
The huge interest and TV ratings focus on the Republicans. Front and center is what will happen if Trump does not get the nomination one way or the other. Keep in mind, the vast majority of delegates are ESTABLISHMENT delegates. Meaning tougher sledding for Trump without the 1,237 he needs. And while Cruz seems a natural second choice, the Republican Party knows he is almost as unelectable as Trump. Plus, his arrogance and contempt for his fellow Republicans hurts him badly. Also, the Party knows Cruz wears a fake mask disguising himself from what most know as a nasty guy. Ever wonder why it is only Cruz’ campaign that has been charged again and again, during this campaign, with dirty campaign tactics? Speaks for itself.
Much of the aforementioned brings us down to the main question. What will happen at a contested GOP convention this July in Cleveland, Ohio….as in John Kasich’s Ohio. The Party dilemma being of what to do should Trump come in with the most delegates, but not enough delegates for the out right winning of the nomination. Much will depend upon how close Ted Cruz is in delegates. If it is fairly close, this bodes well for the anti Trump factions keeping in mind the delegates are establishment delegates who mostly want neither of them. Close means it all opens up into a floor fight that could take many many floor State by State votes. If there is nothing decisive, then it may eventually turn to an alternative candidate. Who might that be? Ohio’s own John Kasich. Kasich knows it. And, the Party wants it. If Trump comes in with a huge lead in delegates and is denied, that, my readers, would bring forth a political blood bath the likes of which not seen in a hundred years. Speculation on this happening is rampant. But, it could lead to a third Party and even possible, the end of the Republican Party as it is today. A very scary proposition.
As I see it, that is just not going to happen. You’ve all heard “God save the Queen (or King)” Perhaps it should be heard “God save the Republican Party.” Or some would say good riddance.