Says New York Times columnist Michael Barbaro in part ” But Donald Trump’s and Hillary Clinton’s resounding triumph’s Tuesday mask a profound historical and unusual reality. Most Americans still don’t like him or her.” His statement affords both Parties a glimmer of hope. Hillary Clinton still awaits a possible indictment. Democrat’s preparing in case. And the Republican National Committee, along with big donors, are preparing for a contested convention. Nothing is “carved in stone.”
Sparing you Tuesday details. Trump won big and Hillary won big Tuesday night. However, Gov. of Ohio, John Kasich won convincingly in his home State. His victory makes it better than a 50-50 chance the Republican Convention will be a contested convention. Likely more contested than Reagan/Ford in the 70’s. Trump won next to nothing of minorities and Hillary’s unfavorable percentages are about the same as Trump’s. Most Republican leaders are convinced, without women, without minorities, without enough less educated white voters, without enough cross over Democrat voters, Trump would lose to Clinton or her replacement should it come to it.
Donald Trump now has 619 delegates of the needed 1,237. He needs 618 of the remaining 1,149 delegates yet to be decided. Roughly 54%. Here are some reasons he may not get there. 1. There is another Republican debate Monday night on the Fox News Channel. ‘The Donald” say he plans not to attend. Dumb idea. 2. John Kasich, as he says, has been running in relative obscurity. After Monday, no more. Just he and Cruz on the stage. The voters, Democrat’s and Republican’s in Ohio, really like their Governor. He won convincingly Tuesday over Trump. He won his re election by 70%. A man now no longer in obscurity. Especially after Monday. 3. There are only five winner take all States remaining. And those five have much lower delegate availability. 4. Four primaries to be held next Tuesday. Only Arizona looks good for Trump. Idaho and Utah will lean towards Cruz. 5. Marco Rubio dropped out of the race after losing Florida. Most likely his voters will go to Kasich. 6. 30% of Ohio voters said there is no way they would vote for Trump. Ohio always a key State for Republican’s. They have never won a Presidential race without carrying Ohio. Kasich is Ohio.
In a contested convention, the rules are normally tossed out. After the first ballot in a floor vote, even a non running candidate can be voted upon. Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, is now being talked about as a potential nominee. Says Ryan…he has “ruled out that possibility.” Not ruled out accepting the nomination. The most comforting item that would prevent a near hysterical walk out should Trump be denied having the most votes is if he is not very close to the necessary 1,237 delegates. Guessing under 1,100. This could open it up for Kasich, Romney and even Rubio or Ryan for votes. A compromise candidate. Rubio, being Hispanic a very good Vice President nominee. Even Trump is leaving open that possibility. Republican Party Chairman Reince Pribus says “A contested convention is not necessarily a bad thing.”
As for Hillary Clinton, she has all but wrapped up the Democrat nomination in delegates now and to come later. Only the FBI report can stop her. That report is needed soon before getting too close when an alternative candidate will need time to get placed on State ballots.
Obama Wednesday is announcing his nominee for the Supreme Court to replace Anton Scalia. It is Judge Merrick Garland. Naturally Obama tries to sell him as a conservative. He is not. More of a moderate. Of course Obama says the Senate must do their duty. It’s more likely Garland will be “taking one for the team.” Republican’s controlling the Senate have made it clear he will not even come up for a vote. Just die in committee. Obama would do the same, just as Senator Chuck Schumer had said some years earlier and Vice President Joe Biden. No way would they allow a vote for a new Supreme Court this late in a Presidential term. Obama, more than most, is all politics all the time trying to make his appointee palatable. This nomination is political for the coming election. If denied, some fear Obama will justify a recess appointment. The Senate has to remain open. Question…what if the Republican’s lose the election and the Senate along with it? Democrat’s, likely Hillary Clinton, would pick a much more liberal justice than judge Merrick. Answer…after the November election bring up judge Garland and ram him through.
As things are after another “Super Tuesday” or some calling it super duper Tuesday, I really hate to say it….it’s so trite it’s almost unbearable, but Yogi Berra’s all time quote “It ain’t over until it’s over.” is most appropriate at this time. And, that quote is true. A lot more to come.
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