Anybody who tells you with any degree of certainty who is going to win…don’t listen.  Nobody knows.  Hall of famer Steve Young just predicted a blow out for Carolina 35-10 over Denver. Denver is a very big underdog.  However, 6 of the last 8 Super Bowls have been won by the underdog including four in a row.  This post is more of an analysis than a prediction.

Panther’s quarterback Cam Newton is to become this years Most Valuable player. Their record is 17 wins and one loss.  They seemingly have it all.  Great defense.  Newton is 6’6″ and 250-260 pounds.  Really hard to bring down.  His passes are like rocket’s.  Carolina has an excellent defensive line that should stop Denver’s running attack.  They are going to try and make Peyton Manning beat them by him passing.  His arm has never been strong since the four neck surgeries.  He will be 40 years old next month.  The oldest quarterback to ever start a Super Bowl game.  So why even play the game?  Denver is already beaten.  Right?  Not so fast.

Here’s some things to consider before we hand the Lombardi trophy to Carolina.  First, the two week layoff.  All the distractions.  Players are creatures of habit.  Forget that now.  Newton has about had it with all the interviews.  More Denver players have been through this before.  Like just two years ago.  After slaughtering Arizona, the word is Carolina is very loose.  Maybe too loose and over confident.  Denver is not Arizona.  The Panthers played a weak schedule. They just got by the Giants by 3 points blowing a 35 point lead.  They just got New Orleans by 3 points.  Playing at home, Indianapolis took them to over time before losing by three points. In their last regular season eight games they played all losing teams.  Atlanta, who beat them, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Dallas, Washington, Tennessee and Atlanta a second time.  They almost blew their huge lead to Seattle as the Seahawks came roaring back. Newton is slow on his feet,  A great runner like a fullback, but he likes to throw deep passes that take more time.  More time for Denver’s terrific pass rush.  Also, they’ll be playing, arguably, the smartest quarterback of all time.  Limited in his ability now, but not his mind.  By now Peyton knows Carolina like a book. And, the forecast calls for no wind.  That helps Manning. And, after one week they may have adjusted to it somewhat, but there is a three hour time change for Carolina.  Body chemistry takes more time to adjust.

As I analyze this game, the outcome may very well be decided by something the average fan may not notice.  Can Denver’s offensive line hold up against Carolina’s very strong defensive front.  Can Denver have any kind a running game to take the pressure off of Manning having to pass.  That’s it.  Then there are the unknown intangibles.  Both teams don’t commit turnover’s. But, they do happen.  And, Carolina might very well be over hyped up early in the game.  Too much adrenalin can drain a team late in the game.  It can happen to a team less experienced.

A final thought or two.  Denver needs to score first.  A touchdown, not a field goal.  If that happens, it changes much.  Carolina will know they are in for it.   Plus, the Panther’s regularly blow big leads in the second half.  Denver is not likely to quit on themselves.  One other strange happening I noticed today.  Here in Las Vegas, suddenly the wagering line came down a half a point meaning more money is now coming in on the Bronco’s.   Go figure.  I expected the opposite. Denver has a decent chance to win.  Maybe a strong chance because the pressure will be on Carolina who is expected to win.  Dent their over confidence and anything can happen.  I’ll take Denver and the points more for sentimental reasons than anything else.

If everything goes according to plan, Carolina should win the game.  But, Denver has the best defense in the league this year.  They will really rush Newton.  Especially from the out side with Ware and Miller.  Up the middle they are strong too.  Remember, Cam Newton is still a young quarterback without the veteran skill to spot secondary receivers fast like Brady, Manning, Rodgers and the rest.  All these small details come into play.  One more thing ( as they say on The Five) I strongly believe this will be Peyton Manning’s last game. Should he win it, it will be his 200th victory.   A double bonus if he can “ride into the sunset.”

And thanks for the ride Peyton.  Win or lose, you have given me more sports pleasure than any other athlete I have ever watched.