If anyone tells you they know who will win Sunday’s Super Bowl game between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons, don’t listen. Nobody knows. But I can tell you, after the two week siege of info on the game, who is likely to win.
What’s become nearly a national holiday, it captivates millions. Many men obsessive about the game. Many women, certainly not all, obsess about the commercials and the Lady Ga Ga halftime show. Me? Most of the time I can’t figure out what the commercials are selling or don’t care to even watch them. The game is everything.
So here goes. New England is a slight favorite. Three points. Meaning if you wager on the Patriots, to win they must do it by 4 points or more. As they say in Las Vegas gambling parlance, lay the points and take New England. I agree. Allow me to touch on five key issues for them winning. Atlanta wins games by a very strong offense with a multitude excellent receivers. New England is no slouch on offense, but critically, have a much stronger defense. 1. Six of the last seven Super Bowls have been won by the better defensive team. 2. Atlanta’s center Alex Mack is hurting. His ankle injury kept him out of practice Thursday. Surely he will play. But, at what level? The center is a key as he snaps the ball to quarterback Matt Ryan. The center sets the tone for the all important offensive line. The center/quarterback combo is critical. Ryan must have time to throw. 3. Experience. This is New England’s 7th Super Bowl with a much disliked coaching genius in Bill Belichek. Give him two weeks to prepare and there is nobody better. Tom Brady is great, but how great would he be on another team. Remember, the Patriot’s won their first three games without Brady. A second string back up won the first 2 games, then injured, and a third string nobody with no experience won the 3rd game. Belichek is the key to everything. It’s Atlanta’s first Super Bowl. Overwhelming pressure. 4. New England is like a chameleon that will quickly assess what the Atlanta defense is giving them and exploit it. Might start slowly. But, they adjust well as always. 5. New England’s superior offensive line almost always protects Tom Brady giving him time to find his best target receiver. When’s the last time you saw Brady get hit and fumble the ball away. Virtually never. 5. The game most always is decided by mistakes of one team. The Pat’s seldom fumble, throw an interception or drop a punt or kickoff.
What is odd is Atlanta has better players. Faster and simply more athletic. However, New England has smarter players, more disciplined with better instincts when there are critical times in the game. Less mistake prone. When New England has been beaten in Super Bowls, there is always one simple reason. QB Tom Brady is rushed and pushed off his spot. No quarterback can throw successfully when smashed down on their butt. If Atlanta can put pressure on Brady with just four pass rushers and drop back seven on defense, they have a chance. Blitz Brady is suicide. He sees it and gets rid of the ball to the open spot in a heart beat.
So that’s the heart of it. If Atlanta can get off to a good start, Ryan has the protection and poise needed (the moment isn’t too big for him) can handle the blitz and they score early, they have a chance to win. They have the best and multiple receivers and the highest scoring offense in the league this year. But, the first Super Bowl can be overwhelming. Plus a once a year 30 minute half time show. Some veteran players have said in their first Super Bowl game they were so nervice and keyed up that they were tired out by half time. That’s where experience comes in to play. And discipline seldom matched by a New England opponent.
There an old saying in sports….’Offense wins games. Defense wine championships.” New England’s defense is better. Much better. But, who knows? That’s why they play the game. But I’m looking for New England to cover three points. It may be close. But the odds are in New England’s favor. Enjoy the day and the game everybody and please please Lady GaGa, no politics. Just shut up and perform.
Jacksjargon.com